Confusion Over the Iran Deal

“Nuclear Threat”: Trump Hints at Nuclear Strike

U.S. President Donald Trump has hinted that the U.S. has an “ultimate alternative” if cooperation with Iran does not go well.(Bild: AP/Jose Luis Magana)

The confusion surrounding a deal between the U.S. and Iran has reached a new level of escalation: Donald Trump threatened the “ultimate alternative” in the event of a failure. Meanwhile, internal struggles are raging in Iran—an agreement could be in jeopardy.

U.S. President Donald Trump has now announced nearly 40 times that a deal in the Iran conflict is imminent. In recent days, hope has spread that Iran and the U.S. might actually sign an agreement this time.

“The agreement is set to be signed tomorrow,” Trump also expressed confidence on Saturday on his platform Truth Social. He said he looked forward to working with Iran. “Hopefully, this process will be quick, easy, and smooth,” the president wrote. “If not, we have the ultimate alternative, which hopefully will never have to be used again.”

“Sounds very much like a nuclear threat”
The U.S. president did not specify what he meant by this. “The ‘ultimate alternative’ sounds very much like a nuclear threat,” analyzed Sina Toossi, an expert on the Middle East. “It’s not the first time Trump has alluded to this,” he noted on the platform X.

What the deal means

• A deal between Iran and the U.S. would not automatically mean that the war is over.
• Rather, it is intended to serve as a starting point for in-depth talks between the two countries. The most difficult sticking point is Iran’s nuclear program.
• According to reports from both countries, a solution to this issue is to be reached within 60 days.

Iran is still undecided
According to a report by the Fars news agency, Iran’s leadership has not yet decided whether to approve the deal. A final decision has not yet been made, Fars quoted an insider as saying. Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei stated on Saturday that the signing could take place in the coming days.

If the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has its way, the Iranians will not sign anything on Sunday. The group criticized Trump’s “unusual insistence” that the deal be finalized on Sunday, as reported by CNN. 

Revolutionary Guards suspect “personal publicity stunt” for Trump
The Iranian negotiators have made it very clear that the memorandum is still not ready, according to the IRGC. The group suspects that Trump wants to sign the deal on his birthday —that is, on Sunday. Some believe that the U.S. president wants to “symbolically use the occasion” and turn it into a “personal publicity event,” the mullahs explained in a post on Telegram.

The Strait of Hormuz as a Point of Contention
A centralpointofcontentionin the negotiations is the economically vitalStrait ofHormuz. “Immediately after the signing, the Strait of Hormuz will be OPEN TO ALL,” Trump announced. But Iranian hardliners, in particular, want to prevent exactly that. They demand that Iran not relinquish the Strait of Hormuz as a leverage tool. They accuse the Iranian negotiators of making too many concessions to the U.S.

Strait of Hormuz

• Iran had largely blocked the Strait of Hormuz—a strait vital to global trade in oil and liquefied natural gas—after the war with the U.S. and Israel began in late February.
• As a result, oil prices skyrocketed worldwide. In response, the U.S. blocked Iranian ports.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Friday on Iranian state television that under a peace agreement, the administration of the Strait of Hormuz would “no longer be as it was before.” He explained that the current draft of the deal states that the U.S. would no longer block Iranian ports.

Iranians protesta
 In Iran on Saturday, dozens of pro-regime supporters took to the streets to demonstrate against a peace agreement with the U.S. A video released by the Iranian news agency FARS showed women in black cloaks chanting “Death to the dishonorable Araqchi.”

Iranian hardliners have been demonstrating against Trump in Iran for weeks.(Bild: AFP/ATTA KENARE)

Pakistan, the mediator in the talks between the U.S. and Iran, remains optimistic that the agreement will be reached soon. “We are closer to a peace agreement than ever before,” Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif wrote on X. Whether he is right remains to be seen.