Umbrella or Shovel

What Will Winter Be Like? Here’s What the Early Trends Say

Nothing is certain yet—but initial trends allow for cautious forecasts for this winter.(Bild: HOLGER W. SPIEKER – stock.adobe.com)

There’s still some time until the meteorological start of winter, but many people are already asking themselves: Will we need an umbrella or a snow shovel more often this year? It’s still too early for concrete facts—but seasonal models are already revealing the first trends.

So-called long-range seasonal models allow for a preliminary, cautious assessment of this winter’s course. These models currently paint a fairly consistent picture—a reversal of the trend away from an unseasonably mild winter is rather unlikely. 

“With a probability of over 60 percent, the coming winter in Austria is likely to be too mild overall. The models indicate temperatures about 1 to 2 degrees above the long-term average, with this trend also emerging for the individual winter months,” says meteorologist Steffen Dietz of the Austrian Severe Weather Center. This would continue the trend of recent years, as data collections show:

Mild Winters Are the Rule Rather Than the Exception

Meteorologist Steffen Dietz compiled data from the past five winters in Austria. The data paint a dramatic picture:

• Over the past five winters, December temperatures in Austria averaged about 1.5 degrees above the 1991–2020 climate average.
• January was also predominantly too mild, with an average of +1.3 degrees.
• The Februarys even showed an average deviation of +2.8 degrees. February 2024 was particularly notable, with a temperature deviation of +5.9 degrees.

A dry winter or rain and snow?
What about precipitation? Will the dry conditions continue, according to the models? According to Dietz, a “slightly wetter winter is expected.” “On average across Austria, this could mean about 10 to 50 liters per square meter more precipitation than usual. Combined with the higher temperatures, this would mean more frequent rain instead of snow, especially at lower elevations, while larger amounts of snow would certainly be possible in the mountains,” said the weather expert. 

Nothing is set in stone yet—but initial trends allow for cautious forecasts for this winter.(Bild: HOLGER W. SPIEKER – stock.adobe.com)

El Niño as a Contributing Factor
The currently exceptionally strong El Niño will also have an impact, Dietz explains—although no conclusions can yet be drawn about specific effects. What is certain, however, is that the weather phenomenon “can influence atmospheric circulation.”

Comparing the climate periods 1961–1990 and 1991–2020, December in the Austrian lowlands has already warmed by about 1.1 degrees.

Meteorologe Steffen Dietz

In any case, it is not unusual for December, the first winter month, to often feel more like fall than winter. “January is climatologically the coldest winter month, while December tends to be slightly milder on average over the long term,” explains Dietz

Temperature levels are shifting upward
“Due to climate change, temperature levels are shifting upward overall, causing precipitation—especially in the lowlands—to fall more frequently as rain, and snow cover to be less persistent. Comparing the climate periods 1961–1990 and 1991–2020, December in the Austrian lowlands has already warmed by about 1.1 degrees. The fact that white Christmases are becoming increasingly rare in many regions is a clear example of this.” 

Looking ahead, the trend appears to be toward winters becoming “milder overall,” though Dietz emphasizes: “Distinctively wintry weather periods will, of course, still be possible.”