Project Postponed

Confusing SPÖ Crisis Plan Paralyzes the Republic for Months

Pictures speak louder than 1,000 words: perplexed faces after the SPÖ crisis summit.(Bild: APA/GEORG HOCHMUTH)

The stalemate within the SPÖ is also having consequences for the government. The vice chancellor is weakened, and his party is divided. Many projects could now be put on the back burner.

It’s becoming increasingly clear: The SPÖ’s roadmap to “renewal” has many gaps in its network. And it’s poised to paralyze the republic for months. In the end, there may even be early elections. Every stop along this bumpy road is marked with a question mark:

• Nothing is set in stone: The only date that’s certain is the SPÖ executive committee meeting this Thursday. Everything else has remained vague so far.
• One, two, or three: After the meeting, the SPÖ will have three leaders. Minister for Women’s Affairs Eva-Maria Holzleitner and parliamentary group leader Philip Kucher will join Andreas Babler. Babler is set to step down sometime early next year. When exactly? Unclear!
• Babler stays: For now, he remains Vice Chancellor, minister, and party leader. Until when, exactly? Unclear!

Federal Executive Director Klaus Seltenheim will also retain his position. However, there is already internal discussion within the party about appointing a second executive director.

(Bild: Krone KREATIV/APA, stock.adobe.com)

(Bild: Krone KREATIV/AFP, Eva Manhart, stock.adobe.com)

Everything depends on Marterbauer’s recovery
In early 2027, Finance Minister Markus Marterbauer is set to take over the role of vice chancellor. Only then will Babler be ready to step down as party leader. On Sunday, he put the SPÖ on the spot: Either you accept my proposal, or I won’t step aside. The party has agreed to this. This now has consequences:

• When is when? The reshuffle will only work if the finance minister, who is battling cancer, feels fit enough by “the beginning of the year.” The 61-year-old will complete the final stage of his chemotherapy in October and will still need further therapy and rest afterward.
• What if he isn’t? Marterbauer can wave it off, in which case the SPÖ will plunge into yet another crisis. Or he can ask for more time. Then Babler will remain in office longer. But he wants to stay on as media minister under Marterbauer anyway.

The question of the party chairmanship will arise again soon
, Holzleitner, and Kucher are organizing a party convention in the spring of 2027. This raises many more questions:

• Just Marterbauer? A new chairperson will be electedat the party convention. If Marterbauer wants to run, he’ll be nominated by the executive committee. That was finalized on Sunday.
• Other candidates? However, anyone else can run, provided they are a paying SPÖ member and have collected declarations of support from at least one percent of SPÖ members (around 1,500 signatures).

The SPÖ now faces the prospect of a months-long power struggle
If there is one or more additional candidates, the chairmanship must be decided by a membership vote. This decision will then be confirmed at the party convention.

Back to square one: If Marterbauer is not available after all in the spring, the SPÖ will need a new candidate more than ever. The leadership debate would start from scratch.

And what will Gerhard Zeiler do now? 
Federal Executive Director Seltenheim said after the crisis meeting on Sunday evening: “I assume that the Gerhard Zeiler chapter is now over.” That’s presumably wishful thinking. As long as Babler isn’t completely out of the picture as party leader, Zeiler can’t be completely written off. The media executive plans to comment on his future only on Wednesday, after returning to Vienna from New York.

If the 71-year-old does not withdraw his candidacy, he will have to collect signatures.

I assume that the Gerhard Zeiler chapter is now over.

SPÖ-Geschäftsführer Klaus Seltenheim

States View the New Stalemate Critically
It’s hard to imagine that the state governors will now stay quiet for weeks (even though that’s what was agreed upon on Sunday). On Monday, they officially expressed satisfaction with the compromise, but the first jabs were already being thrown. “That was the best we could do,” Carinthia’s Governor Daniel Fellner told the website “5 Minuten.” Styria’s SPÖ leader Max Lercher did not consider the outcome an “absolute model solution,” but rather the “only feasible step” under the given circumstances.

Burgenland’s governor wants to give the agreement “a chance.” He will not return to party committees until the reorganization is complete and Babler is no longer a member. Upper Austria’s SPÖ leader, Martin Winkler, said: “We have a Plan B. The SPÖ has a deep pool of talent.” He described the presented solution as “good news for Austria and for the SPÖ.”  Upper Austria’s Governor Thomas Stelzer (ÖVP) believes “such discussions are not conducive to the stability of a government.” The government must “remain capable of working and taking action.”

We have a Plan B. The SPÖ has a deep pool of talent.

Oberösterreichs SPÖ-Chef Martin Winkler ist optimistisch.

Lower Austria’s Governor Johanna Mikl-Leitner (ÖVP): “I’m not interested in internal SPÖ debates. The economy needs to get back on track.”

Babler’s continued tenure as minister is a stumbling block
Babler’s future role will take the following form:

• Powerful: Babler remains in office for now, his confidant Marterbauer is on standby, and parts of his team are being taken over by the SPÖ. This is not how you remove someone from office.
• Powerless: But Babler’s ability to get things done as minister will suffer greatly. The new media funding package was supposed to have been approved by the Council of Ministers as early as last week. However, NEOS and the ÖVP left the SPÖ high and dry. This won’t be the only project left hanging in the air.