Who's coming, who's going?

The SPÖ’s leadership merry-go-round has picked up speed

Minister Marterbauer (center) is the preferred candidate of many as Babler’s (right) successor; Minister Holzleitner (2nd from right) and Third National Council President Bures (left) are the female alternatives—and is Wrabetz merely a token candidate?(Bild: Krone KREATIV/ROLAND SCHLAGER/APA/picturedesk.com, Imre Antal, Starpix/Alexander TUMA (2), APA-Images/ APA/BARBARA GINDL, KI-generiert)

Whether media executive Gerhard Zeiler will actually become the new SPÖ leader is highly questionable. However, his “offer” has set a personnel merry-go-round in motion. If incumbent chairman Andreas Babler cannot hold on during the crisis meetings this weekend, an alternative will be needed. And there are many possibilities in the red power struggle.

There are several possible scenarios for the upcoming crisis meetings on Sunday:

Variante 1

Andreas Babler bleibt, muss aber den Kurs nachjustieren

Even though Babler has ruled out resigning in the run-up to the meetings, this scenario is considered unlikely.

Variante 2

Eine Mehrheit zwingt Babler zum Rücktritt, man einigt sich auf einen Kandidaten oder eine Kandidatin

The challenger Gerhard Zeiler will step in, or a third candidate—who has yet to be identified—will emerge. Many in the party are rooting for the popular Finance Minister Markus Marterbauer. However, he is not only in the midst of cancer treatment, but he also stands loyally behind Babler. “I am a staunch supporter of the Social Democrats and would therefore do everything I can to unite the party,” Marterbauer said in an interview with Puls 24 regarding the current SPÖ crisis.

He doesn’t really see himself as Babler’s successor: “I’m really busy for the next few months.” His cancer treatment will continue through October, and “progress is going just as the doctors had hoped.” He “doesn’t see the point” in Zeiler’s criticism; he would have been happy if the media executive had called him and said, “Hey, let’s do something on economic policy.” 

Also under consideration are Minister for Women’s Affairs Eva-Maria Holzleitner, Third President of the National Council Doris Bures, and Minister of Infrastructure Peter Hanke. Bures could bring calm to the party and strengthen Vienna’s influence; Holzleitner and Hanke are seen as compromise candidates with long shots at winning.

Bures, Holzleitner, and Babler in 2024 during the exploratory talks at that time(Bild: APA-Images / APA / GEORG HOCHMUTH)

In Vienna’s Social Democratic circles, the name of former ORF Director General Alexander Wrabetz is also making the rounds—once again. According to influential Social Democrats from Vienna, he could also become a compromise candidate and, as Vice Chancellor, take over the Ministry of Media.

Notably: As far back as 2011, there was a showdown between Zeiler and Wrabetz—specifically over the position of ORF Director General. Ultimately, however, Zeiler decided against running against Wrabetz.

Once again, the name of former ORF chief Alexander Wrabetz is making the rounds in Vienna.(Bild: APA/GEORG HOCHMUTH)

Mixed scenarios are also being discussed: Babler could step down as party leader and vice chancellor while remaining a minister, or he could stay in the government while someone else takes over the party leadership. Or: Babler could leave entirely, with two new people sharing the roles.

Variante 3

Die Partei kann sich auf niemanden einigen

If no consensus can be reached on a candidate, a delay is possible. An extraordinary party convention (to be convened by the Federal Executive Committee at a later date) could be initiated, preceded by a membership poll. That would give Babler’s opponents the chance to bring another alternative into play. 

In a poll, only 16 percent support Zeiler, 41 percent support Babler
Incidentally, Zeiler seems to have gotten off to a rocky start with the Social Democratic electorate. In an OGM poll for the ServusTV program “Blickwechsel,” only 16 percent of Social Democratic voters support the media executive. Babler, on the other hand, enjoys quite decent support. 41 percent favor the incumbent at the party’s helm. 22 percent would like to see a third alternative.

Zeiler also seems to have a name recognition problem. 73 percent of those surveyed said they wouldn’t recognize him on the street.

A brief handshake across the theater aisles: challenger Zeiler (left) and SPÖ leader Babler, with Marterbauer in the background(Bild: APA/TOBIAS STEINMAURER)

Even among the general population, a party leadership run by Zeiler would not trigger a poll surge in favor of the SPÖ, as a Lazarsfeld poll for oe24 shows. With the media executive as leader, the Social Democrats would reach 19 percent—just two points more than with Babler. According to the poll, 29 percent consider Zeiler at least theoretically electable. 38 percent say he is unelectable.