This amount will last that long

Diesel Deal: Putin Rejoices, Trump Remains Thirsty

The U.S. Treasury Department has given the green light to make the diesel deal possible despite sanctions. But how long will the reported quantities last?(Bild: AFP/PATRICK T. FALLON)

Russia is set to supply hundreds of thousands of metric tons of diesel to the U.S. The deal really only benefits Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin: He’s doing business despite sanctions. All other parties are essentially left empty-handed. Given daily U.S. consumption, the announced volume is paltry. The first tranche won’t even last a day.

If Trump’s intention was to please Putin with his diesel deal, he has succeeded. Russia is ready to “supply crude oil and petroleum products to the American and global markets,” the Russian leader confirmed regarding the deal announced by the U.S. president. This will have a positive impact on the “entire global economy,” Putin added. Trump also rejoiced, calling the agreement a “big deal” and saying, “I would like to thank President Putin.”

Promise of Lower Prices
Trump aims above all to score political points at home by driving down fuel prices in the U.S., something he has already boldly promised. Gas prices—which have risen sharply in the U.S. as well, largely due to the war in Iran—are putting pressure on Trump ahead of the important midterm elections in less than a month. However, experts strongly doubt whether the current diesel deal will actually bring about any noticeable relief.

Trump at a campaign rally on Saturday in New York State(Bild: AFP/ALEX WONG)

First shipment barely lasts a day
This is because the announced amount of diesel that Russia is supposed to supply is ridiculously small given U.S. consumption. Even if we assume that the first shipment of 300,000 metric tons (2.24 million barrels), announced for October, goes exclusively to the United States, it won’t even last a day. The thirsty U.S. economy, which according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) consumes an average of 3.7 million barrels of diesel (one barrel equals 159 liters) per day, would have guzzled through that amount in just 14 hours. Energy expert Gregory Brew told CNN that it is merely a “band-aid solution.”

Even the diesel shipments announced for the coming months will not be enough to fill U.S. tanks for long. According to Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, an additional 500,000 metric tons are to be delivered in November, with one million metric tons to follow in December. Trump has vaguely hinted at the delivery of an additional three million metric tons of diesel in the future.

Even by the most generous estimates, this total amount is barely enough to cover U.S. consumption for just under ten days. It remains unclear how much will actually be delivered. The Kremlin emphasized that how much Russia can actually supply depends on repairs to refineries damaged by Ukrainian drone attacks.

A Deal Due to Ongoing Drone Attacks?
In recent weeks, the U.S. president has already blamed Ukraine for the global diesel shortage due to such attacks and called on his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, to halt the attacks. He is now said to have struck the diesel deal with Putin because Kyiv did not comply with this request. This is reported by the news site “Axios,” citing an anonymous U.S. official.

In an interview with the news portal, Zelenskyy expressed his anger that Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were in Miami negotiating with Ukrainian negotiators about a possible end to the war, while the president was simultaneously striking a deal with Putin.

Zelenskyy Seeks Compromise
However, the Ukrainian president reiterated his willingness to halt attacks on Russian refineries if, in return, Russia stops its attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities. “We have just proposed such an agreement to the United States and believe that the United States has sufficient leverage to achieve such a compromise,” the head of state said.