After Election Defeat

Is Trump on his way out? Speculation about his resignation is now rife

Political scientists speculate that, faced with the threat of losing power, U.S. President Donald Trump might throw in the towel prematurely.(Bild: AP/Alex Brandon)

Following the heavy defeat in the U.S. midterm elections, Donald Trump (80) faces two difficult years ahead. The Democrats are taking control of Congress, and investigative committees could pose a threat to the president. A prominent election analyst even considers an early resignation a possibility.

The political air is getting thinner for Donald Trump in Washington. In the midterm elections, the Republicans lost their majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Starting in January, the Democrats will thus be able to block key presidential initiatives, complicate personnel decisions, and scrutinize his administration. As the German newspaper “Bild” reports, there is now even speculation as to whether Trump might throw in the towel early in light of the impending loss of power.

Trump Could Find a Pretext to Step Down as President
The catalyst for this unusual resignation theory is Nate Silver. The 48-year-old U.S. election researcher is considered one of the country’s best-known election forecasters and had a keen sense of the political mood during the recent midterm elections as well. In a podcast, he spoke of an “intuition”: Trump might possibly find a pretext to step down from the presidency.

The U.S. president is likely to become politically isolated
Silver’s reasoning: The president could find himself increasingly isolated in the coming months. Until now, many Republicans have been reluctant to oppose Trump because they feared his power within their own party. Following the election defeat, that could change. The Democrats, too, would now have significantly more opportunities to exert pressure on the White House.

Trump would not, however, be entirely without power. He remains president until the end of his term and can continue to make important decisions. But when it comes to legislation, budget issues, and the confirmation of key personnel appointments, the Democrats will be breathing down his neck in the future. Numerous congressional investigations could also become uncomfortable for the president and his political circle.

If Trump were to step down, his current vice president, JD Vance, would become president.(Bild: AFP/ALEX WROBLEWSKI)

U.S. political scientist Scott Erb also considers a resignation a possibility. Speaking to “Bild,” he explained that it would not surprise him if Trump were to resign next year out of frustration over his loss of power. Constant investigations, political gridlock, and his weakened position could tip the scales.

Vance Could Move into the White House
A potential successor has already been identified: Vice President JD Vance (42). If Trump were to actually resign, Vance would automatically become president under the U.S. Constitution. He could serve out the remainder of the current term, thereby gaining an advantage for a potential presidential run in 2028.

However, the relationship between Trump and Vance is not necessarily free of conflict. After the election debacle, Vance pointed to the consequences of the Iran war as a major reason for the Republicans’ defeat. This was interpreted as criticism of Trump’s policies. Whether the president actually views his vice president as his political heir is therefore another question.

Resignation as a Political Maneuver?
A withdrawal could also be a strategic move for Trump and his party. Currently, there are many indications that the Democrats might have a good chance of returning to the White House in the next presidential election in 2028. A new Republican president at the helm could give the party a fresh start.

Barack Obama won the 2008 presidential election for the Democrats after the approval ratings of then-Republican President George W. Bush were similarly low to those of Trump today.(Bild: AFP/MEGAN VARNER)

A look at recent U.S. history shows how difficult the situation can become for a president following an election defeat such as the one in the recent midterms. In 2006, then-Republican President George W. Bush also lost control of both chambers of Congress. His approval ratings were as low as Trump’s are today. Two years later, Democrat Barack Obama won the presidential election.

For now, Trump is holding on to office
So far, however, there are no signs whatsoever that Trump is actually preparing to resign. The speculation, however, shows just how much pressure his political position is under following the election defeat.