"Absolute" is possible

All of Europe is watching Saxony-Anhalt with concern

A political upheaval is looming in Saxony-Anhalt.(Bild: AFP/John MACDOUGALL, Krone KREATIV)

The German state of Saxony-Anhalt is electing a new “leader” today. The right-wing AfD is all but certain to emerge victorious—it could even win an “absolute majority.” The consequences will be far-reaching.

A political earthquake is on the horizon: As Saxony-Anhalt elects a new state parliament today, not only all of Germany but also Europe is looking with concern at our neighbor’s small state, which is about the same size as Lower Austria and has only two million residents.

All polls paint the same picture. The AfD, led by its top candidate Uli Siegmund, is heading for a historic victory with likely more than 40 percent of the vote, placing it far ahead of the CDU and the incumbent state leader Sven Schulze, who trails far behind with just over 20 percent.

A political earthquake is looming in Saxony-Anhalt.(Bild: AFP/John MACDOUGALL, Krone KREATIV)

Impending Change in Power Causes Unease Abroad
This looming change in power is causing great unease even abroad. Moscow is watching the developments with favor. The Kremlin is hoping for an AfD triumph that could increase pressure on the German federal government and weaken Chancellor Friedrich Merz. In Kyiv, however, fears are growing about the consequences of the election. Ukraine fears that a political upheaval in Magdeburg could destabilize one of Europe’s most important sources of funding and weapons, as the AfD is calling for an end to such aid.

A Deep Divide Between the Camps
The recent debate between the leading candidates demonstrated just how deep the divide between the camps is. Minister-President Sven Schulze and challenger Siegmund clashed fiercely over the state’s future. On the issue of employment, Siegmund focuses primarily on bringing back Germans who have emigrated, while Schulze makes it clear that key sectors such as nursing care would collapse without foreign skilled workers. On migration, the AfD demands drastic deportations at full speed, while the CDU points to international agreements and existing laws. On the issue of finances, too, the two sides are worlds apart: The AfD promises radical cuts in administrative spending, but economic think tanks are already warning of a billion-euro shortfall in the right-wing party’s platform.

Should the AfD emerge victorious, its power would nevertheless be subject to constitutional limits. While an AfD-led government could quickly set its own priorities in areas such as cultural funding, police appointments, or education policy, However, radical upheavals—such as the abolition of compulsory education in favor of homeschooling or interventions in energy policy—would largely fail due to federal laws.

So who will govern with whom?
The biggest mystery, however, remains the formation of a government. Since the AfD is likely to fall short of an absolute majority despite its record-breaking result, and all other parties strictly reject a coalition with it, a political stalemate looms. CDU challenger Schulze would likely have no choice but to form a shaky minority government that would have to rely on votes from the Left Party—an unthinkable taboo for many Christian Democrats. The political upheaval following today’s election will continue to reverberate for a long time.