Trembling in Fear of the AfD

All of Europe is watching Saxony-Anhalt with concern

A political upheaval is looming in Saxony-Anhalt.(Bild: AFP/John MACDOUGALL, Krone KREATIV)

Germany’s smallest state is electing a new “leader” today. Who stands to gain? What do the candidates stand for? Who can work with whom? 

A political earthquake is on the horizon: As Saxony-Anhalt elects a new state parliament today, not only all of Germany but also Europe is looking with concern at our neighbor’s smallest federal state, which is about the same size as Lower Austria and has a population of just two million.

All polls paint the same picture. The AfD, led by top candidate Uli Siegmund, is heading for a historic victory with what is likely to be over 40 percent of the vote, placing it far ahead of the CDU and the incumbent state leader Sven Schulze, who trails far behind at just over 20 percent.

Impending Change of Power Causes Unease Abroad
This looming change in power is causing great unease even abroad. Moscow is watching the events unfold with approval. The Kremlin is hoping for an AfD triumph that could increase pressure on the German federal government and weaken Chancellor Friedrich Merz. In Kyiv, however, fears are growing over the consequences of the election. Ukraine fears that a political upheaval in Magdeburg could destabilize one of Europe’s most important sources of financial and military aid, as the AfD is calling for an end to such assistance.

A Deep Divide Between the Camps
The recent debate between the leading candidates demonstrated just how deep the divide between the camps is. Minister-President Sven Schulze and challenger Siegmund clashed fiercely over the state’s future. On the issue of employment, Siegmund focuses primarily on bringing back Germans who have emigrated, while Schulze makes it clear that key sectors such as nursing care would collapse without foreign skilled workers. On migration, the AfD demands drastic deportations at an accelerated pace, while the CDU points to international agreements and existing laws. On the issue of finance, too, their positions are worlds apart: The AfD promises radical cuts in administrative spending, but economic think tanks are already warning of a billion-euro shortfall in the right-wing party’s platform.

Should the AfD emerge victorious, its power would nevertheless be subject to constitutional limits. While an AfD-led government could quickly set its own priorities in areas such as cultural funding, police appointments, or education policy, However, radical upheavals—such as abolishing compulsory education in favor of homeschooling or intervening in energy policy—would largely fail due to federal laws.

So who will govern with whom?
The biggest mystery, however, remains the formation of a government. Since the AfD is likely to fall short of an absolute majority despite its record-breaking result, and all other parties strictly reject a coalition with it, a political stalemate looms. CDU challenger Schulze would likely have no choice but to form a shaky minority government that would have to rely on votes from the Left Party—an unimaginable taboo for many Christian Democrats. The political upheaval following today’s election will continue to reverberate for a long time to come.