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Poll Shock in Styria: FPÖ Sweeps the Board!

According to the latest poll, Mario Kunasek would be far ahead in a direct election for state governor.(Bild: Christian Jauschowetz)

This breaking poll from the Kronen Zeitung is nothing short of a political earthquake: If state elections were held this Sunday, the Freedom Party and Governor Mario Kunasek would win by a landslide. For the Conservatives and Social Democrats, however, the outlook is grim!

This November marks two years since the balance of power shifted dramatically in our state’s state election: For the first time, the FPÖ took first place, pushing the ÖVP into second. Since then, the Blue-Black coalition has been in power—unlike the federal government, without any major discord. Time to take stock. Where do the individual parties stand right now, and how are their leaders viewed by the public?

On behalf of the “Steirerkrone,” the renowned polling institute IFDD surveyed 800 Styrians a few days ago (between August 8 and 13) (margin of error +/- 3.5 percent). They were also asked the traditional “Sunday question”: “Where would you place your vote if the state election were held this coming Sunday?”

“The FPÖ is virtually unstoppable”
Well, the result is nothing short of a bombshell. The Freedom Party, led by Mario Kunasek, is rising and rising, already reaching 43 percent! Compared to the election in the fall of 2024, that’s a whopping increase of nearly eight percentage points. For survey author Christoph Haselmayer, “the FPÖ in Styria is virtually unstoppable”: “It’s heading toward an absolute majority.”

(Bild: Krone KREATIV)

So while Kunasek has long since become the “state leader,” things are looking grim for the junior partner in the state coalition. The decline that began under former state leader Christopher Drexler continues unabated. A 19 percent share represents a drop of nearly seven points; the psychologically important “two” in front of the result is gone. “The ÖVP is facing a bitter headwind from the federal party and continues to lose ground,” comments Haselmayer.

Black and Red Already Neck and Neck
Particularly unpleasant for ÖVP Chairwoman and Deputy Governor Manuela Khom: there’s even a race for second place. According to the IFDD, the SPÖ under Max Lercher is also holding steady at 19 percent. “Although Lercher also has to contend with the unpopularity of federal party chairman Andreas Babler, he personally manages to stay above his party’s poll numbers.” The state SPÖ also appears to have weathered the poor results in the Graz city council election relatively well.

Mario Kunasek is now in a league of his own; the other party leaders don’t come close to his popularity ratings.

Christoph Haselmayer

The opposition parties, on the other hand, remain below the 10 percent mark. However, the Greens, led by Sandra Krautwaschl, have gained about three percentage points compared to the state election, reaching nine percent. Claudia Klimt-Weithaler’s Communists (six percent) also appear to be gaining ground; the “Elke Kahr bonus” is likely at play here.

Manuela Khom: No Tailwind from Chancellor Stocker(Bild: Christian Jauschowetz)

Only for the NEOS would re-entry into the Styrian state parliament be a nail-biter; with four percent, they would barely make it. The controversy surrounding Veit Dengler’s expulsion and the internal dispute are clearly taking their toll—though party leader Niko Swatek, who is generally perceived as likable, is inadvertently benefiting from the situation, as Haselmayer notes.

Poor Poll Numbers for Manuela Khom
Incidentally, the poll also examined how a hypothetical direct election for state governor would turn out. Here, too, Kunasek has a clear lead. Forty-seven percent would vote for him, putting the 50-year-old on par with figures like Waltraud Klasnic or Josef Krainer in their heyday.

Trailing far behind: Max Lercher (20 percent) and Manuela Khom (16 percent). “Khom has disastrous personal approval ratings that aren’t helping the state party,” comments the pollster. While 42 percent largely see her as the right person to lead the ÖVP, 40 percent disagree.