“A Brexit moment”

Swiss Reject Population Cap

The campaign has been underway in Switzerland for months.(Bild: AFP/SEBASTIEN BOZON)

A truly decisive election took place in Switzerland on Sunday: The Swiss were the first country in the world to be called upon to vote on a cap on their own population...

The party with the most voters, the right-wing SVP, wants to limit immigration. The population was to be capped at ten million by 2050. After a months-long campaign, the Swiss rejected this proposal.

According to projections, the proposal is likely to fail. A representative of a polling institute predicted that the referendum on Sunday would receive only about 45 percent approval, as he explained on the public broadcaster SRF.

Currently, about 9.1 million people live in the Alpine country. Had the initiative been accepted, the granting of asylum and family reunification would have had to be restricted once the population reached 9.5 million.

For months, the mood has been building in Switzerland.(Bild: AFP/SEBASTIEN BOZON)

Economy on edge ahead of decision
Driven by high immigration, the population has grown by nearly a quarter to 9.1 million people since the introduction of the free movement of persons with the EU in 2002.

This has boosted the economy, but at the same time led to overcrowded trains and a housing shortage. Yet nearly all political parties, Parliament, and the government (Federal Council) oppose this historic proposal. The country’s business community was equally alarmed. Companies in sectors such as biotech, which rely on talent from abroad, have already threatened to relocate. 

“Switzerland’s Brexit Moment”
Justice Minister Beat Jans of the Social Democrats (SP), drawing a parallel to the United Kingdom’s exit from the EU, spoke of Switzerland’s impending “Brexit moment.” A close race has recently emerged.

More than a quarter of the population are foreigners; 330,000 were German nationals as of the end of 2024. According to Statistics Austria, just over 70,000 Austrians living abroad are registered in Switzerland. However, Swiss authorities estimate the number to be lower, at 45,000. This figure, however, only includes individuals with a primary residence and an Austrian passport who are permanently registered in Switzerland; it does not include dual citizens, for example.

What was proposed?

• The SVP proposal calls for a two-stage approach. If the population grows to 9.5 million, the government must put the brakes on asylum seekers and family reunification for foreigners. According to a government estimate, this is likely to occur in 2031.
• The ten-million mark is then expected to be reached in 2042. Two years after crossing this threshold, Switzerland would have to terminate the Agreement on the Free Movement of Persons with the EU. This would likely also render a whole series of other treaties with its most important trading partner null and void.
• According to the government’s assessment, this could cost the country billions in revenue.

Wages act as a magnet; depending on the calculation, gross wages are between 60 and 80 percent higher than those in Germany or Austria. Due to significantly lower taxes and social security contributions, net salaries in particular are often considerably higher. However, this advantage is partially offset by extremely high living costs.

The vote count began at 12 p.m. In past years, however, the results of referendums have often deviated significantly from the polls.