“Became very wealthy”

Mysterious oil deals, just minutes before Trump’s post

$580 million bet before Trump’s post: Coincidence or insider deal?(Bild: AFP/ANGELA WEISS)

Just minutes before a social media post by U.S. President Donald Trump shook the markets, bets worth hundreds of millions of dollars were placed on the oil market—a striking coincidence that is now raising questions.

About 15 minutes before Trump’s post on his Truth Social platform on Monday, futures contracts for Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil worth approximately $580 million (around €535 million) changed hands. Specifically, about 6,200 contracts were traded between 6:49 a.m. and 6:50 a.m. New York time, according to calculations based on Bloomberg data.

Notable movements ahead of the announcement
As the “Financial Times” reported, trading volume also surged almost simultaneously—a sharp spike occurred just seconds before 6:50 a.m. Shortly after the notable trades, futures on the S&P 500 also rose.

$580 million bet before Trump’s post: Coincidence or insider deal?(Bild: AFP/ANGELA WEISS)

The market movement was ultimately triggered by Trump’s post at 7:04 a.m. In it, he spoke of “productive discussions” with Tehran regarding ending the war in Iran and withdrawing his ultimatum to block the Strait of Hormuz. The result: a significant sell-off in global energy markets and rising stock prices—investors no longer expected a prolonged conflict.

Mystery surrounding the masterminds
It remains unclear who is behind the strikingly well-timed trades—whether a single party or multiple actors were involved is unknown. According to the “Financial Times,” a market strategist at a U.S. brokerage expressed skepticism: While it is difficult to prove a direct link, “one has to ask who would be selling futures so aggressively at that exact moment—15 minutes before Trump’s post.”

Two posts that could hardly be more contradictory:

“Someone got very rich here”
Several hedge funds point out that this is not the first case of its kind. According to the “Financial Times,” there have been repeated large transactions in recent months shortly before official announcements by the U.S. government.

One trader spoke of “unusually timed” block trades, while a portfolio manager noted growing frustration among investors. “My gut feeling after 25 years of market observation: This is truly unusual,” said another trader. “It’s early Monday morning, there’s no major data, no central bank speeches—and yet such a large trade with no apparent event risk. Someone has gotten very rich here.”

Iran denies claims – markets turn negative again
A statement from Iran later in the day added to the uncertainty: Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf denied on Platform X (formerly Twitter) that any talks with Washington had taken place at all.

The reaction was immediate: stocks came under pressure, while energy prices rose again. Ghalibaf spoke of “fake news” being used to manipulate financial and oil markets.

Simultaneous notable movement in the gas market
Market observers, however, put the scale of the transactions into perspective. According to the “Financial Times,” a commodities trader noted that the sales were not unusually large in the context of an already very active market. However, a noticeable movement was also observed at the same time in the European gas benchmark TTF.

Tim Skirrow of the consulting firm Energy Aspects also takes a nuanced view of the situation: While trading volume was higher than usual for this time of day, it was “not excessively large.” He noted that it is difficult to establish clear correlations here.

At the same time, he points to strong capital inflows into the Brent market in recent weeks. Many investors had positioned themselves for rising prices—a scenario that can fuel sharp market movements.