“Holding talks”
Trump Backtracks, Postpones Power Plant Attacks
No ultimatum after all? Following Iran’s announcement that it would respond to attacks on its power plants by bombing energy facilities in the Gulf, U.S. President Donald Trump has backed down. Any military attacks by the U.S. and its allies on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure would now be suspended for five days, it was reported.
However, the suspension is contingent on the success of ongoing meetings and talks, Trump announced on Monday. He noted that there had been good and productive discussions with Iran over the past two days.
Iran immediately denied Trump’s claims that negotiations were underway between Tehran and Washington. There were no direct contacts with Trump, not even through intermediaries, according to reports by the FARS and Tasnim news agencies, which are close to Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guards.
“If you attack, we will attack”
The Iranian Revolutionary Guards had previously threatened to attack Israeli power plants and the power supply to U.S. bases in the Persian Gulf, thereby countering Trump. Should Trump carry out his threat and destroy the Iranian power grid, the Islamic Republic’s elite force had announced earlier on Monday that it would strike back in kind. “If you attack the power grid, we will attack the power grid.”
According to the Iranian Defense Council, an attack on Iran’s southern coast or the country’s islands would also lead to the mining of sea lanes in the Gulf. Any attempt at an attack would result in the deployment of various sea mines, including drifting mines deployed from the coast, a statement released by state media on Monday said. In that case, the entire Gulf would be impassable for a long time.
This comes in response to a report by the news portal “Axios” stating that the U.S. is considering a blockade or occupation of Kharg, Iran’s key oil export island, to force the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. According to the Council, non-belligerent states may continue to pass through the strait only after prior consultation with Iran.
War of verbal threats
The Revolutionary Guards, however, backed away from earlier threats against seawater desalination plants in the region. The U.S. president had claimed that Iran wanted to inflict suffering on the populations of neighboring countries, according to a statement released by state media. Trump had issued an ultimatum to the leadership in Tehran on Saturday: If the strategically important Strait of Hormuz is not fully reopened to shipping within 48 hours, the U.S. would destroy Iranian power plants. The deadline expires at 12:45 a.m. CET on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the mutual attacks continued unabated.
Attack on power plants would have drastic consequences
The de facto blockade of the strait, through which one-fifth of the world’s traded oil and liquefied natural gas normally passes, has already triggered a severe oil crisis. The head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, describes it as very serious. According to Birol, it is more severe than the two oil shocks of the 1970s and the effects of the war in Ukraine on gas supplies combined.
An attack on the power supply would have catastrophic consequences for the Gulf states, as countries like Bahrain and Qatar meet 100 percent of their drinking water needs through electricity-intensive seawater desalination plants. In the United Arab Emirates, the figure is more than 80 percent, and in Saudi Arabia, 50 percent.
The war launched by the U.S. and Israel in late February has claimed more than 2,000 lives so far. It has sent global markets into turmoil and fueled fears of a worldwide surge in inflation. At the same time, Israel is engaged in fierce fighting with the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia in Lebanon. An Israeli military spokesperson braced for a prolonged conflict. He stated that weeks of fighting against Iran and Hezbollah are still expected. The militia, which entered the war on March 2, has since fired hundreds of rockets at Israel. On Monday, it announced attacks on Israeli border areas.
Moscow and Beijing Call for De-escalation
China warned against further escalation. “Should the war expand and the situation deteriorate again, the entire region could plunge into an uncontrollable situation,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian on Monday when asked by journalists about Trump’s ultimatum.
Although Beijing is an ally of the leadership in Tehran, it also stated that China “does not condone” Iranian attacks on Gulf states where U.S. military bases are located. Trump had actually planned to travel to Beijing in March, but the trip was postponed in light of the war with Iran.
Russia called for diplomatic solutions. “We believe the situation should have been resolved through political and diplomatic means,” said Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov. Only this, he said, could “effectively help defuse the catastrophically tense situation in the region.”
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