Majority Is Crumbling

Ludwig’s SPÖ Continues to Lose Ground—Nepp Closes the Gap

Mayor Michael Ludwig is still attracting voters, but the SPÖ’s lead is melting away.(Bild: Imre Antal)

The W24 poll shows that a red-pink coalition would not currently have a majority. Even a three-party coalition with the ÖVP would be a close call. Ironically, the Greens are once again emerging as a viable option for the SPÖ to regain power in City Hall.

The air is getting thinner for Mayor Michael Ludwig and the Social Democrats. In the latest poll by the Institute for Demoscopy & Data Analysis (IFDD) for the W24 television station, his SPÖ now stands at just 35 percent. In June, it was 36 percent; in the 2025 Vienna election, it was still 39.4 percent. Dominik Nepp’s FPÖ has risen from 25 to 26 percent compared to June. The gap between the Reds and the Blues has thus shrunk to nine points. Pollster Christoph Haselmayer explains: “However, the significant headwinds from the federal level are also dragging down even a strong state party like the SPÖ Vienna.”

A Three-Party Coalition or With the Greens
The real problem for Ludwig, however, lies with his potential coalition partners. The NEOS, with whom the SPÖ governs City Hall, have slipped from nine to seven percent. Together, the Reds and the Pink would now only reach 42 percent. According to these poll numbers, the current coalition would no longer have a majority.
Even with a third partner, it would be a close call: The ÖVP has also lost one percentage point and, like the NEOS, stands at seven percent. The SPÖ, NEOS, and ÖVP together account for 49 percent—down from 53 percent in June. Whether that’s enough for a majority of seats cannot be reliably determined from a single poll. The 100 seats on the municipal council are distributed according to electoral districts and residual votes. In any case, such a three-party alliance would not constitute a comfortable majority.

However, the significant headwind from the federal level is also dragging down even a strong state party like the SPÖ Vienna. The opposite effect is evident with the FPÖ: the tailwind from the federal level is propelling them to 26%, even though the Freedom Party is struggling significantly more in urban areas than in rural regions.

Christoph Haselmayer

Bild: Martin A. Jöchl

Back to the Ex
The situation is different for the Greens. Judith Pühringer’s party has risen from 17 to 19 percent. Together with the SPÖ, that would total 54 percent. For Ludwig, a renewed red-green coalition could thus once again become the most obvious alternative. The Communist Party of Austria stands at 5 percent, up from 4 percent in June. This puts it exactly at the threshold that would allow it to secure a seat through citywide seat allocation. This, too, could change the balance of power in the city council. 

The mayor himself remains strong
Ludwig himself remains stronger than his party: in a hypothetical direct mayoral election, he would receive 44 percent. However, in June, he still had 46 percent. Nepp maintains his 26 percent here. Green Party leader Pühringer has risen from 15 to 17 percent. The Red and Pink parties continue to govern City Hall with 53 out of 100 seats. Should this trend be confirmed in an election, that majority would be lost.