Fear of the Election Results
The specter of the AfD: “… then the CDU is finished!”
Between concern and pragmatism: Sunday’s state election in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt is considered a high-stakes event—and not just by our neighbors. The fact that the eyes of the EU and international observers are also firmly fixed on the state capital, Magdeburg, is due to the threat of a political earthquake.
Kronen Zeitung als bevorzugte Google-Quelle hinzufügen The election could be historic. Nearly 1.7 million citizens will decide whether the political landscape in Saxony-Anhalt—and possibly throughout the entire Federal Republic—will shift.
For the first time since World War II, a far-right party could come to power in our neighboring state—a volatile scenario that international media representatives (currently 500 accredited journalists) are also covering extensively.
AfD at over 40 percent in polls
Saxony-Anhalt is currently (still) governed by a coalition of the CDU, SPD, and FDP. However, according to all polls, the coalition is set to lose its majority. In a poll published Thursday by the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, the AfD—classified by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution as a confirmed far-right party—is at 41 percent with its lead candidate, Ulrich Siegmund. The CDU, led by Minister President Sven Schulze, follows with an unchanged 23 percent. A significant defeat for the CDU would also further weaken the position of Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU).
The AfD will likely need an absolute majority to govern
Whether the AfD actually secures an absolute majority in terms of seats—and thus takes over the state government—depends on whether, in addition to the CDU and The Left, the smaller parties clear the five-percent threshold and enter the state parliament. The fact is: If the AfD does not secure an absolute majority, it will not be able to appoint the future state premier, as all parties have ruled out a coalition with the far-right party in advance. Only BSW founder Sarah Wagenknecht indicated beforehand that her party could very well help an AfD Minister-President come to power.
It’s either the Alternative for Germany or everyone else combined against Germany. That’s why we have to do it on our own—and that’s why we need an absolute majority.
Ulrich Siegmund
Bild: AFP/RONNY HARTMANN
CDU Defends Its “Firewall”
Dennis Radtke, chairman of the CDU’s labor wing, once again warned the state chapter on Thursday evening against cooperating with the AfD. “The moment we cooperate with this party and give it responsibility, the CDU is finished,” Radtke emphasized on the ZDF program “Maybrit Illner.” Radtke continues to consider the so-called “firewall” to be “the right thing to do.”
AfD Plans Radical State and Social Restructuring
In any case, the AfD’s election platform in Saxony-Anhalt is quite something and focuses on a far-reaching restructuring of the state and society—especially in the areas of education, migration, and the economy. For example, it aims to end inclusion in schools and stop the promotion of “non-German culture.” In addition, the party is considering terminating the State Media Treaty. And it’s not just on these issues that the party is dividing public opinion.
Saxony-Anhalt as a testing ground for the federal AfD?
German political scientist Roger Stöcker describes the list of measures to *Focus* as a “collection of declarations of war and breaches of taboos.” The AfD is positioning itself clearly to the right of the CDU. “While some demands seem rather harmless, others would quickly reach the limits of current law.”
An AfD government in Saxony-Anhalt could serve as a sort of testing ground for the national party. If the far-right party pushes through its agenda, the changes could be replicated exactly across the country. As a reminder: At the federal level, too, the AfD is currently leading all polls by a wide margin.
While some of its demands seem relatively harmless, others would quickly push the boundaries of current law.
Politikwissenschaftler Roger Stöcker über das Wahlprogramm der AfD in Sachsen-Anhalt
Should the AfD come to power in the future, it would likely have massive repercussions for Germany’s reputation abroad. Experts foresee problems, for example, in economic relations with Germany’s neighboring countries. Discussions are already underway there regarding possible consequences for the EU, Ukraine, and relations with Russia.
Major Concerns in Poland
In Warsaw, for example, there is great unease. Experts and diplomats warn that a potential AfD government could place new strains on German-Polish relations. Analysts fear that NATO’s ability to act would be limited, that Russian influence in Germany would increase, and that the federal government would be destabilized.
If radicals are gaining ground in Germany, that’s something to take seriously!
Ein polnischer Diplomat zeigt sich über einen möglichen AfD-Sieg in Sachsen-Anhalt besorgt.
Fears of Riots on Sunday After Polls Close
The fact is: Germany’s political camps are divided, and tensions are running high in Saxony-Anhalt. Police and authorities fear that violent riots—from both the far-left and far-right spectrums—could break out on Sunday.
In addition to so-called “victory rallies” by AfD supporters, there is even speculation about a possible far-left “storming of the state parliament.” “No one knows what will actually happen at 6:01 p.m. But we are preparing for all possible scenarios and will protect peaceful demonstrations and the right to vote,” Saxony-Anhalt’s Interior Minister Tamara Zieschang (CDU) told the “Bild” newspaper.
Since April, 120 election-related crimes have already been recorded in Saxony-Anhalt, primarily insults and threats, but also assaults.
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