Missile "Deterrence"

While Berlin Accuses Putin

The Israeli Lora system was tested, while Moscow was accused in Berlin of being the mastermind behind the terror plot.(Bild: Krone-Collage/Bundeswehr)

For the first time, Germany has explicitly named Russia as the mastermind behind the terror attacks and held it responsible for a series of “hybrid attacks.” While Berlin took the expected political measures, the federal government also sent an unambiguous military message in the North Atlantic.

Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt and Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul stuck strictly to the script during their press conference on Tuesday afternoon. The goal was to clearly expose Russia as the mastermind behind the drone terror—without giving Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin new grounds for criticism.

It was emphasized repeatedly: “We are not at war.” No follow-up questions were allowed. The statement had been coordinated in detail between the ministries and prepared over the course of several days. Every single word mattered, according to sources in Berlin’s government district.

Among the political consequences are the closure of the Russian House in Berlin—the cultural institute is suspected of serving as a cover for espionage—and the Consulate General in Bonn, as well as the associated expulsion of numerous diplomats. There will also be stricter entry controls for Russians, as well as tougher action against the Russian shadow fleet.

Navy Issues Military Warning
A response of this magnitude had been expected, but at the same time, an exercise took place in the North Atlantic that still surprised many experts. A German frigate had successfully conducted a previously classified test of the Israeli Lora missile system in the North Atlantic (see tweet below).

A spokesperson announced this. Plans are now set to move forward for the procurement of these weapons, which have a range of more than 500 kilometers. The manufacturer, Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI), markets the system as a tactical missile for precision strikes and states that it is “capable of striking strategic targets deep within enemy territory from mobile or maritime platforms.” Any detected target within range can be destroyed within ten minutes. 

Preparations were largely kept secret, although maritime and air traffic were publicly warned 45 days before the test. “With the successful launch of a ballistic missile last night in the North Atlantic, we have made naval history. I am extremely pleased with this achievement,” said Navy Inspector Jan Christian Kaack.

The system can be successfully deployed from German ships, “and its potential range exceeds anything we have seen before.” He explained: “For the protection of Germany and our allies, this test marks a new chapter in deterrence and defense readiness at sea.” The message is unmistakable: this far and no further! 

The long-range missile was tested between Ireland and Iceland.(Bild: Bundeswehr)

Political scientist sees a turning point in Germany’s approach
German political scientist Carlo Masala sees this as a historic move: “This test, which had been planned for a long time, would have been postponed a year or two ago due to the press conference on Russia sanctions taking place on the same day, so as not to send the wrong signal to Moscow. Now it has been carried out.”

While the military signal is being praised, many feel the political consequences regarding the Leipzig terror attack and other “hybrid attacks” do not go far enough. “No one in the Kremlin will lose any sleep over this today, and the costs for past attacks and for deterring future ones would have to go far beyond the ‘measures’ announced today,” explained geopolitics expert Nico Lange, for example. 

While naming Russian aggression is a “big step,” overemphasizing a “hybrid war” would downplay the current events, Lange told CNN. “I think all of this is enough to invoke NATO’s Article 4.” The closure of consulates and vague measures against Russia’s shadow fleet are not politically deterrent enough.

It’s not about what “we” think of the measures, but how the Kremlin perceives them. His conclusion: Moscow would see “weakness.”

Berlin Declines to Invoke NATO Article 4
In Brussels, the NATO Council will address the failed attack at Germany’s initiative. According to German government sources, there will be a discussion at the ambassadorial level about the growing hybrid threat from Russia.

However, the German government does not intend to invoke Article 4 of the NATO Treaty. It provides for consultations among allies if a NATO member state declares itself to be under external threat.

Since the alliance was founded in 1949, the article has been invoked only nine times—three times since Russia launched its war of aggression against Ukraine—but never by Germany.

Initial consultations on a possible European response are also expected at the EU foreign ministers’ meeting in Ireland. Russian President Putin described Germany’s punitive measures against his country as a “serious mistake” and spoke of evidence tampering. The Russian Foreign Ministry announced a “mirror-image” response. Or as Lange put it: “In Moscow, they probably couldn’t believe their eyes that the Russian House is still even open...”