Political expert Hajek

“I don’t see a ‘Sebastian Kurz effect’ with Zeiler”

The clock is ticking for Gerhard Zeiler—with each passing week, the tide could turn in Babler’s favor again.(Bild: APA/Florian Wieser)

Media executive Gehard Zeiler wants to replace Andreas Babler as SPÖ leader. Pollster Peter Hajek sees potential, but adds: “The longer the process takes, the better it is for Babler.” Where Zeiler’s potential lies, whether he can defeat the FPÖ, and what his problem is.

Peter Hajek holds a Ph.D. in political science, is a certified market and opinion pollster, and a TV expert. He closely followed Gerhard Zeiler’s interview in the “Kronen Zeitung” and the media executive’s appearance on ZiB 2, and has drawn his conclusions from them. What risk does the current situation pose for the SPÖ? The interview:

“Krone”: From a pollster’s perspective, where does Gerhard Zeiler have potential, and where are his weaknesses?
Peter Hajek: I don’t have any current figures, but let me compare him to Andreas Babler. Zeiler has an impressive résumé and an international background. He held leading positions in the media industry, so he naturally has business expertise as well. He projects the image of a manager and a doer. And that’s exactly what Andreas Babler lacks—and what people keep throwing in his face.

Is Zeiler living up to his potential?
In that regard, he has at least once clearly distanced himself from Babler by saying, “I am not a Marxist.” He has positioned himself as a classic social democrat, putting him on the same wavelength as Bruno Kreisky and Hannes Androsch and their slogan “Achievement, Advancement, Security.”

The clock is ticking for Gerhard Zeiler—with each passing week, the tide could turn in Babler’s favor again.(Bild: APA/Florian Wieser)

What’s missing?
Given his age, it’s understandable that he views politics from an old-school perspective. That is, you discuss things thoroughly, present your arguments, and then try to implement them. This has a bit of the charm of the Vranitzky era, which was, however, a much slower-paced one.

Peter Hajek holds a Ph.D. in political science, is a certified market and opinion researcher, and a TV expert.(Bild: wildbild)

Is that a disadvantage?
No, but it raises a question should he ever assume a leadership role: How well can Gerhard Zeiler adapt to today’s understanding of politics? If you look at his appearance on ZiB 2, it had that aura of the 2000s. It was more of the classic style of political commentary. But the world has moved on.

So is it a disadvantage after all?
It doesn’t have to be one per se, but it is certainly noticeable.

Is his age a major obstacle? 
I don’t think so, and I don’t need to point to Konrad Adenauer, who was elected the first Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany at age 73. Even today, there are still plenty of older politicians, such as Donald Trump. The only question is whether I have the energy to pull it off.

What does that mean?
First of all, you have to keep up with the pace of today’s world.

He doesn’t even have a social media account…
My goodness, communication. I mean, you don’t handle that yourself—you outsource it. I can certainly put together a team to handle that for me. What I mean is that politics has simply become much faster. You have to act much more quickly. And of course, these days I have to use media channels to reach young people, too. It just came across as an outdated form of communication.

It also seemed like he didn’t have a plan, didn’t it?
Maybe he’s not telling us everything yet. He has already said a few things that make sense. He’s placed a very, very strong emphasis on the economy, saying that’s where we need to take action. I assume he already has a few ideas, but I didn’t expect him to present a master plan.

What’s his starting point?
All the poll numbers for Andreas Babler are, of course, “very critical.” That means, unless Zeiler handles things really clumsily, he should actually get better feedback. The question is, though, how far will that go? How high can the numbers go in the polls?

And, how far?
The question is which voter segments he can appeal to. We know from all the polls we’ve conducted in recent years that 45 percent consider the SPÖ fundamentally a viable option. That’s the maximum potential. Of course, you never fully tap into that—the Freedom Party is currently the most successful at doing so.

What does that mean for Zeiler?
According to our data, Babler currently stands at 17 percent. We conducted a poll for ATV this summer and included a “Sunday question” with Markus Marterbauer—that is, how many people would vote for the SPÖ if he were the top candidate. He scored 25 percent. That’s the potential that can be quickly tapped into right now.

But?
The interesting thing about this poll was that the Freedom Party wasn’t affected by it. In other words, Marterbauer didn’t take any votes away from them; he simply drew support from the left of center—from the Greens, a bit from NEOS, the KPÖ, and non-voters.

Is that as high as it goes?
Anything beyond that can only come from a longer process. With Sebastian Kurz, the ÖVP shot up immediately after he took over. I’d be skeptical about that happening with Gerhard Zeiler.

Why should it be any different?
Kurz spent years laying the groundwork. He was State Secretary for Integration and Foreign Minister. He planned everything strategically and organized his allies. I don’t currently expect Zeiler to have the same impact as Sebastian Kurz. Nor do I expect him to knock the Freedom Party off the top spot in one fell swoop.

What is the risk with Zeiler?
One thing is clear: The longer the process takes, the better it is for Babler. Because at some point, the public will say about Zeiler: He can’t even assert himself within the SPÖ, and he wants to help govern the country as vice chancellor?

Could that be a tactic of the current leadership?
That danger is indeed real for Zeiler—that they’ll let him starve on an empty hand.

What does all this mean for Babler?
In this case, he’s the second victim. No one in the party has stood up for him and said, “Babler absolutely must stay.” I consider this development to be the biggest problem of all.

Why?
I consider what the remaining party leaders are doing to be negligent. You either stand behind the current party leader or behind the challenger. But doing nothing, failing to take a stand—that, in my view, is a huge problem.

What’s the consequence?
If they don’t react quickly, this will drag on for weeks or months. Then the SPÖ will slide even further. Let’s look at Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. Who would have thought a few years ago that the CDU could be kicked out of the state parliament? I’m not saying that the SPÖ won’t make it into the National Council in the next election, but in this regard, nothing is impossible anymore because we’re living through a historic transformation.