New Level of Escalation

Iran Sets Its Sights on Europe: Considering Attacks in the EU

Iran is apparently considering attacking targets in Europe.(Bild: APA/AFP)

The war with Iran has long since ceased to affect only Iran, Israel, and the U.S. Now, however, it could reach an entirely new level of escalation: The Iranians are apparently considering bombing U.S. targets in the EU. Insiders are naming specific countries that could become targets.

From Iran’s perspective, it is now up to U.S. President Donald Trump whether EU countries will also be directly drawn into the war with Iran. The Iranians are, in fact, considering attacking targets in Europe if Trump, for his part, allows the war to escalate. At least that is what two insiders close to the Iranian regime told the “Financial Times.” 

“If the U.S. goes too far, Iran will defend itself at all costs, go beyond the region, and also attack Europe,” a person close to the Revolutionary Guards paints a grim scenario.

The Iranian armed forces have apparently considered attacks on U.S. military facilities in southeastern European countries, including Bulgaria. The EU member state recently authorized U.S. refueling aircraft to use the Besmer Air Base.

Iran is apparently considering attacking targets in Europe.(Bild: APA/AFP)

What happens if Iran attacks an EU country?

• The so-called EU Mutual Assistance Clause specifies what happens in the event of an “armed attack on the territory of a Member State” of the EU.
• In such a case, the other EU countries must support the attacked state. However, this support does not have to be military.

Cyprus, an EU member state, is also said to be a potential target; in March, a British air base there was already attacked by drones. In addition, the Iranians are apparently considering attacking undersea fiber-optic cables in the contested Strait of Hormuz.

A Complicated Situation
At present, it does not appear as though the situation will ease soon or that the war will end. This is illustrated, for example, by a post from Trump on his platform Truth Social. On Tuesday, he shared a map of the contested Strait of Hormuz with the caption: “New U.S. Territory.” The U.S. president also stated that there are currently “no ongoing or planned talks or negotiations” with Iran.

Trump declared the Strait of Hormuz U.S. territory:

Within the Iranian regime, the signs do not point to peace either. Many now believe there is no alternative but to continue the war. However, according to insiders, whether there will actually be attacks in Europe depends on what the U.S. does. Iran apparently intends to further escalate the war if Trump follows through on his earlier threats and attacks Iranian infrastructure.

Warning to Europe
According to the insiders, Iran has already proven that it is capable of attacking targets in Europe as well. The attack on a U.S. base in Jordan demonstrated that the Iranians can strike targets at greater distances. “That was also a message to Europe: It can be hit by missiles, so it should know where it stands in this war,” sources close to Iran told the *Financial Times*.

If what the insiders say is true, Iran is prepared to attack European targets as well. However, Sidharth Kaushal, an expert at the Royal United Services Institute think tank in London, assesses the threat posed by Iranian missiles in Europe as “real, but limited.”