Shocking Poll Results for the ÖVP

FPÖ on Track to Become the Top Party in Lower Austria

Landbauer’s FPÖ is now locked in a neck-and-neck race with Johanna Mikl-Leitner’s People’s Party.(Bild: APA/HELMUT FOHRINGER)

One earthquake rarely comes alone: The release of an IFDD poll has caused concern within the ÖVP in Lower Austria. According to the poll, the Freedom Party is already hot on the heels of the ÖVP with a solid 30 percent, but new figures paint an even bleaker picture...

Instead of 35 to 30 (as in the IFDD poll), it’s more likely 32 to 32—and thus a neck-and-neck race between Johanna Mikl-Leitner’s ÖVP and the Freedom Party led by Udo Landbauer. At least, that’s the unofficial word coming from various party headquarters in St. Pölten, the capital of Lower Austria.

The FPÖ, however, is keeping a tight lid on things. Their cautious statement following the IFDD poll: “It’s a welcome snapshot of the moment and, for us in the Freedom Party, above all a clear mandate: to continue working with full force for our fellow citizens. We have shown that we are ready to implement the change that voters have entrusted us with. Our compass always points toward the people,” commented Udo Landbauer, FPÖ Lower Austria State Party Chairman and Deputy Governor, on the initial figures.

Compared to the state election, the Freedom Party has “only” gained about six percentage points, reaching 30 percent. But that is precisely what makes this so explosive for the People’s Party: The once-comfortable dominance of the black bloc is visibly beginning to crumble, and—according to the opposition’s figures—they are said to be far from the projected 35 percent.

Zauner likes to hand out yellow cards, but more will be needed for the next state election.(Bild: Andreas Steinacher)

No trace left of the “campaign to win back trust,” little confidence in party leaders
The fact is: On election night in 2023, Johanna Mikl-Leitner announced a “campaign to restore trust” in her speech. A year and a half before the next state election, however, there is little sign of it. Mikl-Leitner wants to run again as the top candidate. But who will actually lead the ÖVP back to victory remains more uncertain than ever.

VPNÖ State Executive Director Matthias Zauner, a close confidant of Wiener Neustadt Mayor Klaus Schneeberger, will have to prove himself. He took office only after the fiasco of the last state election—but even within his own ranks, very few believe that he, of all people, can develop the right strategy for a comeback.

Zauner himself, naturally, is trying to paint a more optimistic picture of the situation. Commenting on the IFDD poll, he said: “Unlike the other federal states, we are bucking the negative national trend. For the past three years, various polls have shown the People’s Party of Lower Austria to remain consistently stable at 35 to 36 percent, despite declining national figures.”

Political Turmoil in a True Showdown
But stability is far from a new beginning—and certainly no guarantee of an election victory. For while the ÖVP points to its supposedly stable core electorate, the FPÖ is knocking ever louder on the Landhaus’s door. What was once an unassailable lead could suddenly turn into a real showdown. “35 to 30 still sounds like ÖVP dominance. 32 to 32, on the other hand, would be a political state of emergency,” as one political observer puts it.

This raises an uncomfortable question for the ÖVP: Is the much-cited “winner’s gene” actually still somewhere within the party’s DNA—or has every trace of it vanished from the Lower Austrian “ÖVP DNA” by now?

The election campaign isn’t in full swing yet. There’s still plenty of time. But one thing is already clear: it certainly won’t be a walk in the park for Mikl-Leitner and her People’s Party until the next election.