2024 "exceptional"

US authority expects a strong hurricane season

Hurricanes "Idalia" and "Franklin" off the west coast of Florida at the end of August 2023.(Bild: NOAA)

According to a recent assessment by the US weather agency NOAA, the hurricane season over the Atlantic could be stronger than average this year. It warns that the 2024 season is likely to be quite "exceptional".

The probability of this is 85 percent, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced on Thursday. Causes include above-average water temperatures in the Atlantic and the expected onset of "La Niña", a phase of cooler water temperatures in the Pacific.

Up to 25 hurricanes expected
From the beginning of June to the end of November, a total of up to 25 hurricanes with wind speeds of at least around 60 kilometers per hour are expected, which is why they have been given names. The NOAA had never predicted so many for the season in its history in May.

When do we speak of a hurricane?

The term hurricane probably goes back to the language of the Taíno, the indigenous people of the Greater Antilles. According to a definition by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO for short), a storm is a hurricane if its wind speed exceeds 119 kilometers per hour. There are five categories: The most severe hurricanes have wind speeds of more than 240 kilometers per hour.

Of these forecast storms, 13 could become hurricanes, i.e. have peak wind speeds of at least around 120 kilometers per hour. Up to seven could become very strong hurricanes and reach wind speeds of 180 kilometers per hour.

On average, there are seven hurricanes per year over the Atlantic, three of which develop into very strong storms.