ÖVP ahead, but:

First blue-red majority in black heartland

The entrance to the Lower Austrian state parliament in the government district in St. Pölten (archive photo).(Bild: APA/HELMUT FOHRINGER)

Lower Austria is heading for exciting political times. According to a recent poll, the balance of power is shifting so much that for the first time in history, a blue-red majority in the state parliament would be possible. 

In the latest Sunday poll, the ÖVP is still ahead of the FPÖ with 35% (down five percentage points compared to the 2023 election!), which is up to 27% (up three points on the previous year).

The entrance to the Lower Austrian state parliament in the government district in St. Pölten (archive photo).(Bild: APA/HELMUT FOHRINGER)

The SPÖ reaches 22 percent (plus 1), the NEOS and the Greens are tied with seven percent each (Greens minus 1, NEOS the same), others at two percent.

Majority against the ÖVP in Lower Austria for the first time
"For the first time, there is an FPÖ-SPÖ majority - not only in the state government, but also in the state parliament - or a majority against the ÖVP. Of course, these are warning signals that the entire Lower Austrian People's Party should now take into account in its deliberations," opinion researcher and political insider Christoph Haselmayer emphasizes to the "Krone" newspaper.

Of course, these are warning signals that the entire Lower Austrian People's Party should now take into consideration.

Meinungsforscher und Politik-Insider Christoph Haselmayer

Bild: krone.tv

ÖVP in decline since 2018
The ÖVP is therefore still in decline in the largest federal state. By way of comparison: in the 2018 state elections, the People's Party won an absolute majority of seats with Johanna Mikl-Leitner as governor, before plummeting to 39.9% in 2023. However, the Black Party has now also moved away from this figure, while its coalition partner, the FPÖ, has made further gains in voter favorability. 

Governor of Lower Austria Johanna Mikl-Leitner(Bild: APA/GEORG HOCHMUTH)

Trust index: Mikl-Leitner now only in 2nd place
Even though the ÖVP is still in first place, the pressure on Mikl-Leitner is increasing noticeably, especially as the 60-year-old is only in second place in the recently published APA-OGM trust index for Lower Austria. It is not surprising that she has recently been repeatedly putting the rod in the window of the negotiators in Vienna regarding the "Zuckerl" coalition.

Next mood test: Municipal elections at the end of January
The next big test for the ÖVP Lower Austria will be the municipal elections on 26 January 2025. The aim there is to defend 52.69 percent or 448 black mayoral seats.

There is great fear that the FPÖ will continue its current run of success (National Council elections, Vorarlberg, Styria) and also win big at municipal level. According to political insiders, the People's Party is expecting a loss of around 600 seats (it currently holds 7,000 together with lists close to the ÖVP). The ÖVP is the only party to be represented in all 568 municipalities. 

We can only reverse the trend in all election and poll results of the People's Party with a federal policy that delivers in the fight for the prosperity of our fellow countrymen, for the competitiveness of our businesses and against radical Islam.

Matthias Zauner, Landesgeschäftsführer der Volkspartei

ÖVP Lower Austria calm: "Unchallenged number one!"
No alarm bells are ringing within the People's Party (for the time being). "In politically extremely difficult times, in which one negative headline follows the next, the current survey shows that the People's Party of Lower Austria remains the undisputed number one," says ÖVP regional managing director Matthias Zauner calmly.

The latest poll encourages the People's Party to "continue to fight for the interests of our fellow countrymen with a clear edge".