Tool of the Kremlin

After Prigozhin’s death: the Wagner model lives on

A year has passed since the plane crash of Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin. Nevertheless, the Russian mercenaries continue to play an important role - namely in Africa.

"Despite Prigozhin's death and the renaming to Africa Corps, Wagner's footprint on the continent is likely to continue to grow," say analysts from the conflict data organization Acled. In the first half of 2024, there were more incidents of political violence by Russian mercenaries in Africa than during Prigozhin's lifetime.

The businessman Prigozhin had effectively built up a private army since 2014 - the Wagner mercenaries not only fought in Ukraine, but also first in Syria and then primarily on the African continent in Moscow's interests. In June 2023, Wagner launched an armed uprising against the Kremlin. On August 23, 2023, Prigozhin's plane crashed with him and his closest allies - with no survivors.

"Survival package for the regime"
 Experts on a panel at the US think tank Brookings describe Prigozhin's most lucrative services as a "survival package for the regime": The Russians provided paramilitaries to protect presidents or fight insurgents, for example - by any means necessary, including massacres, rape or torture of civilians. Acled recorded violence in connection with Wagner in Libya, the Central African Republic, Mali, Mozambique and Sudan, as well as border areas in Chad and Mauritania.

Since Prigozhin's death, control of the new paramilitary structure called the Africa Corps has been between Moscow's Ministry of Defense and the GRU military intelligence service. "The Kremlin still wants to use Wagner as a geopolitical and economic tool. But it is trying to do so without Prigozhin and the Wagner brand name," says researcher Mark Galeotti. This was successful in Libya, for example, where the new bosses quietly took over the Wagner networks to support General Khalifa Haftar.

But elsewhere in Africa, Wagner continues to dominate: "In practice, the Wagner Group still exists in spirit. The members of the group see themselves as the Wagner group; it's a sociological thing," writes Acled analyst Héni Nsaibia.

The Sahel state of Mali is fighting against both separatists and Islamist terrorist groups and, after neither a French anti-terror mission nor UN blue helmets were able to pacify the country, has been relying on Wagner paramilitaries since the end of 2021. Since then, the mercenaries have been involved in a third of military operations, according to Acled. 60 percent of the violent incidents in which Wagner forces have been involved in the Sahel state have been directed against civilians, the organization reports.

Violence on the rise
"When Prigozhin died, Mali was already in the middle of a military offensive to recapture the north of the country," write the Acled analysts. Since then, the incidents of violence involving Russian mercenaries have risen by 81 percent. Just a few weeks ago, the Russians suffered their deadliest defeat to date, with up to 80 mercenaries killed.

The bitterly poor Central African Republic was the Wagner showcase project: the Russians helped the government against rebels and gained far-reaching influence. There is even a monument to the Russian mercenaries in Bangui. However, a renewed increase in political violence has been observed in the Central African Republic in recent months because the rebels are becoming more active again, writes Acled.

The number of civilians killed by the Wagner Group this year has already eclipsed the total for 2023. While the leadership was replaced after Prigozhin, the networks in the country remained untouched by Moscow - "according to the motto, if it's not broken, don't fix it", says Wagner expert John Lechner.

Stability at any price
Until Prigozhin's death, there were no Wagner forces in Mali's neighboring countries Burkina Faso and Niger, despite the fact that they also had pro-Russian coup governments. But at the beginning of this year, around 100 Africa Corps mercenaries moved into each of the two capitals. According to Acled, these are still limited to training and security services - for example as bodyguards for the Burkinabe junta leader Ibrahim Traoré, who is increasingly afraid of a counter-coup after his army suffered heavy defeats at the hands of terrorists.

Other African countries could also be interested in the model in the medium term. Researchers are concerned about states such as the Democratic Republic of Congo and the small island state of São Tomé and Príncipe, which have signed military agreements with Russia, or West Africa's coastal states, which need help against terrorist groups from the Sahel.

"Wagner's selling point is that they implement the mission that African governments want them to do," says Wagner expert Lechner. The Russians have a convincing product to offer: Stability at any price.