New level of escalation
Analysis of the US attack: “Trump needs success”
The US military strikes against Iran mark a new level of escalation in the already tense relationship between Washington and Tehran. According to Iran expert Walter Posch, it is "still too early to say what the goal of the operation is." However, there are many indications that familiar patterns will continue!
Explosions in several cities in Iran, initial reports of air strikes and counterstrikes. Iran expert Walter Posch from the National Defense Academy in Vienna assesses the initial developments for the "Krone" newspaper: The expert assumes that this is a coordinated offensive involving missiles, drones, and other precision weapons – comparable to previous attacks.
"The focus is likely to be on targeted strikes against Iran's political and military leadership. The aim is to destabilize decision-making structures and severely weaken the regime's ability to act."
No direct invasion – but many unknowns
In addition, Posch believes it is possible that irregular forces could infiltrate the country. Such a scenario would rely on indirect destabilization – for example, by supporting opposition or separatist groups. In his assessment, however, a classic ground war currently seems unlikely.
Posch does not expect a comprehensive invasion by US ground troops. There are too few land forces stationed in the region for that. However, he points to a strategic uncertainty: the actual number of US troops in northern Iraq is difficult to estimate. This lack of transparency makes it difficult to accurately assess Washington's military options.
The crucial question is: escalation or de-escalation?
Tehran's response is now at the center of current developments. The Iranian leadership must decide whether and in what form it will retaliate. A massive military response could lead to open regional confrontation – with incalculable consequences for the Middle East.
At the same time, the question arises as to whether and how de-escalation is still possible. Given the current dynamics, diplomatic channels could be severely strained or already blocked. Posch emphasizes that these two factors in particular – the possibilities for de-escalation and Iran's decision on how to respond – are the key questions for the coming days and weeks.
Political dimension: Netanyahu and Trump under pressure
On the political level, Posch sees clear winners and losers. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has achieved his main goal: further negotiations with Iran have been effectively prevented, and military logic now dominates events.
US President Donald Trump, on the other hand, is under pressure to succeed. He now needs a quick, visible success. A protracted conflict without clear results could become problematic domestically – especially in a sensitive political environment.
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