New poll quake

SPÖ could even overtake a short-lived ÖVP with Kern

There has been speculation for weeks about a return of the red former chancellor. A new survey shows that a comeback would probably have a positive impact on the ailing Social Democrats.(Bild: APA/GEORG HOCHMUTH)

A new "Krone" poll reveals a domestic political earthquake on Epiphany: If - as has been speculated in many places - former Chancellor Christian Kern were to take over the SPÖ again, the Reds would be ahead of the People's Party (even if ÖVP former Chancellor Sebastian Kurz were to make a comeback). Regardless of this, FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl is unassailably in first place.

One day before the government meets again for the first Council of Ministers of the new year, a "Krone" survey on Epiphany day shakes up red-white-red domestic politics. For weeks, rumors have been growing around political Vienna that SPÖ ex-chancellor Christian Kern could return and challenge Andreas Babler at the party conference on 7 March. Kern himself denied these speculations, sometimes more, sometimes less clearly.

There has been speculation about a return of the red former chancellor for weeks. A new survey shows that a comeback would probably have a positive impact on the ailing Social Democrats.(Bild: APA/GEORG HOCHMUTH)

High-ranking Reds pity Kern
The fact is: the many high-ranking Reds throughout Austria who want to bring back the former chancellor, who turned 60 on Sunday, are all likely to pick up the phone on Epiphany. This is because the Sunday poll commissioned by the "Krone" and conducted by the Institute for Public Opinion Research and Data Analysis shows that Kern would bring the Social Democrats a six percent increase straight away - and thus second place in the event of an election. Kern would score points precisely where Babler always wanted to score points - with the NEOS, the Greens and even the Communists.

In the SPÖ, more and more people are rallying behind the slogan BMW, so Babler must go. The group must persuade him to run. His ratings are positive and stable.

Christoph Haselmayer, IFDD-Chef

Babler has always attacked Rendi-Wagner
So will there be an opposing candidacy against Babler? "It is at least becoming more likely. All those who now want to show solidarity with Babler should bear in mind that Babler himself has always mercilessly attacked Pamela Rendi-Wagner as party chairwoman, for example, only to now lead the SPÖ to the worst level in its history," says IFDD head and pollster Christoph Haselmayer, who conducted the survey.

(Bild: Krone KREATIV/Jauschowetz Christian, APA/Helmut Fohringer, Imre Antal, Peter Tomschi, Eva Manhart)

Kurz with a plus straight away, Kickl in 1st place
Nevertheless, the result must also give the ÖVP pause for thought. In the chancellor's party, the number of supporters of a Kurz comeback has increased since the celebrity crowd at the Kurz Christmas party - as reported by the "Krone" newspaper. According to the survey, the young former chancellor and now successful entrepreneur would give the ÖVP a small boost from a standing start, but would only land in third place in the event of a Kern comeback.

"Per se, the brand essence of the People's Party appears to be severely damaged, which could pose a major problem in the upcoming state elections," adds Haselmayer. However, the results of the survey are clear: whether Kern, Kurz, Babler or Stocker: Herbert Kickl's FPÖ is unassailably in first place.