EU election 2024

Trend forecast: EPP strongest force, right-wing gains

The first forecast for the European elections sees the European People's Party (EPP) clearly in first place in the European Parliament despite gains by right-wing populist parties: it has 181 seats and no major losses.

They are followed by the Social Democrats with 135 MEPs, according to a trend calculation by the EU Parliament on Sunday. The liberal Renew remains a close third, ahead of the national-conservative European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR).

This means that the three largest political groups just about retain their absolute majority. Renew has 82 MEPs, ahead of the ECR with 71, while the far-right "Identity and Democracy" gains seats and the Greens lose. According to the forecast, ID will have 62 MPs and the Greens 53. The group of non-attached MPs, which includes many MPs from the far right, will be strong for the time being: It comes to 102 seats. In last place is the Left Party with 34 MPs.

Results are published shortly after 11 p.m.
The first overall predictions for the composition of the EU Parliament are based on the forecasts for eleven EU countries (exit polls) as well as pre-election polls in the other 16 member states. The overall forecast expected for 21:15 will already be based on 15 member states. The results will not be published until all polling stations across Europe have closed. This is expected to be shortly after 11pm. The last polling stations close in Italy. Around 360 million Europeans have voted for 720 new Members of the European Parliament since Thursday. This is 15 more than in the previous Parliament with 705.