Election in Croatia

Conservatives win, coalition poker begins

Prime Minister Andrej Plenković's ruling conservatives have been able to maintain their leading position in the Croatian parliamentary elections. However, it is not yet certain that he will continue to govern and forming a coalition is likely to be difficult. The left-liberal opposition alliance is not giving up hope of a change of government.

After counting the votes in 99.7% of polling stations, Plenković's Croatian Democratic Community (HDZ) won 61 of the 151 seats, while the left-liberal opposition alliance led by President Zoran Milanović won 42 seats, according to the electoral commission.

Plenković, who appeared before his cheering party supporters well after midnight, spoke of a "convincing victory" for the HDZ for the third time in a row. He announced that he would begin forming his third government early on Thursday morning. Maintaining political stability and forming a government quickly were important in view of the challenging geopolitical situation in order to ensure social and economic security, said the HDZ leader, who has been Croatia's head of government since 2016. With regard to the opposition's ambitions, he emphasized that the formation of a government should fall to the winner of the election.

Opposition does not admit defeat
The leader of the Social Democrats (SDP), Pedja Grbin, did not admit defeat despite coming second. "Two thirds of citizens have shown that they want change. We will not let them down," said Grbin. He announced that the left-liberal alliance would now hold talks to form a government.

The co-chair of the left-green party Možemo (We Can), Sandra Benčić, also said that the opposition's goal of ousting the HDZ was still achievable. She pointed to a scenario in which the SDP would form a minority government that would be tolerated by opposition parties from the left and right camps.

According to the partial results, the far-right Homeland Movement (DP) came third with 14 seats, followed by the bourgeois party Most (Bridge) with eleven seats and Možemo with ten. A further five seats went to smaller parties.

Coalition with right-wing populists?
The HDZ, which has governed with the support of minority representatives to date, will need a partner from the ranks of the opposition parties in future. In an initial reaction, HDZ deputy leader Gordan Jandroković was cautious about the question of a possible coalition with the right-wing Homeland Movement, which Prime Minister Plenković had previously kept at arm's length.

However, after the HDZ, which previously had 66 seats, lost several mandates, the Homeland Movement could play a key role in forming a government. Its representatives also kept a low profile on election night, but emphasized their rejection of cooperation with Možemo and the Serbian minority party SDSS, which had previously supported the HDZ government. Former HDZ leader and ex-prime minister Jadranka Kosor nevertheless described a "3P" coalition as possible, alluding to the surnames of the party leaders of HDZ (Andrej Plenković), DP (Ivan Penava) and SDSS (Milorad Pupovac).

Greens make massive gains
The surprise of the election evening was the strong performance of the Green Party Možemo, which made massive gains. "We are no longer a party of Zagreb, but are becoming a nationwide party," said Možemo MP Gordan Bosanac. According to a report in the newspaper "Jutarnji list", the first contacts between the party leaders of Možemo and the Social Democrats (SDP), which leads the left-wing opposition alliance "Rivers of Justice", took place on the evening of the election. Možemo had confirmed that it only wanted to support a coalition government without the participation of right-wing parties such as Most.

Voter turnout was surprisingly high. By 4.30 p.m., 50.6 percent of voters had cast their ballots, 16.6 percentage points more than at this time four years ago.

Mudslinging in the election campaign
The opposition alliance was informally led by President and former Prime Minister Zoran Milanović, as the Constitutional Court had formally banned him from standing as a candidate. The short and unusual election campaign was dominated by a fierce exchange of blows between Prime Minister Plenković and President Milanović. During the election campaign, the prime minister described the president as a "political pest" and "constitution-breaker". The latter in turn called Plenković a "godfather of criminals" and criticized "the most corrupt government in Croatian history". He described the HDZ as a criminal cartel.