Large missile arsenal
Iran could repeat the attack at any time
The world is eagerly awaiting Israel's announced retaliation against Iran. What could it look like? And what reaction would follow from Tehran? In any case, there is no end to the crisis in sight.
"If the situation ends in a military exchange of blows, then the only question is who will be the first to run out of missiles," explains Fabian Hinz from the Institute for Security Strategies to the "Krone" newspaper. "In any case, Iran has an arsenal of ballistic missiles large enough to repeat last weekend's attack." And apparently not just once.
On Sunday night, Iran sent over 300 drones, missiles and cruise missiles towards Israel. In response to the deadly, presumably Israeli airstrike on the Iranian embassy in Syria. Most of the objects were intercepted by Israel and its allies.
Are "Iron Dome", "Davids Sling" and "Arrow", as the defense systems are called, equipped for a possible further attack? "Drones and cruise missiles can be intercepted relatively easily," explains Hinz. "More complex systems are used for ballistic missiles. If they run out of ammunition, it takes some time to reproduce them." Of course, this also applies to Iran.
"So what does the real attack look like?"
For Hinz, last weekend's attack was not just a threatening gesture: "If it was just a symbolic attack, what does the real attack look like?" says Hinz. "Iran wanted to cause as much damage as possible. You can see that from the weapons systems used. Iran used the most modern and most expensive missiles." A symbolic gesture could have been cheaper.
Targets connected to Saturday night's attack, such as production sites for drones or missiles, would be more understandable. Whether this would end the exchange of blows is highly doubtful.
Israel wants to send an appropriate message. What could it look like? If Israel attacks targets inside Iran, the risk of escalation is very high. Such as targets related to the nuclear program. The problem: "These facilities are built deep underground and are well protected. That would require a very massive attack," says Hinz.
Even if the Iranian air defenses are no match for Israel's: The prospect of success would be slim. Targeting high-ranking military personnel, for example from the Revolutionary Guards, could lead to a renewed escalation.
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