"Krone" analysis

Why Russia is violating Europe’s airspace

Escalate or stand by? A difficult decision for the EU and NATO.(Bild: AP/AFP/Forsvarsmakten/Krone KREATIV)

Drones, presumably of Russian origin, in Poland and Denmark and Russian fighter jets in Estonian airspace have shown Europe's military vulnerability in recent weeks. What is Vladimir Putin trying to achieve? Military expert Gerhard Mangott analyzes for the "Krone".

The biggest capability gaps are particularly evident in drone defense. Europe can only fend off cheap drones with expensive means. But what motivates Russia to violate airspace? There are four motives.

Firstly, Russia wants to test how and how quickly the air defense on NATO's eastern flank reacts. Secondly, Russia wants to test how NATO reacts politically: Is there agreement within the alliance on how to respond to the airspace violations, or will differences between the member states become apparent? The latter would undermine NATO's deterrent effect - which is of course in Russia's interest.

Thirdly, Russia wants to increase uncertainty and fear among the Western populations. The most important motive, however, is to send a warning signal to the West not to go too far in its support for Ukraine. Above all, the Europeans should not even think about stationing their own soldiers in Ukraine. The airspace violations are therefore also an attempt at intimidation.

Nevertheless, it is not advisable to shoot down Russian aircraft in NATO airspace in future. This would trigger a spiral of escalation that no one could control. Of course, Russia would be strongly advised to refrain from such provocations.

Gerhard Mangott