SPÖ leader in first place?

Backstage TV duel: Babler doubts polls

Pollster Christoph Haselmayer at the Elefantenrunde(Bild: Imre Antal)

SPÖ leader Andreas Babler sees himself in first place in the election polls. After the Elephant Round, he had a dispute with pollster Christoph Haselmayer. 

It happened during the last commercial break before the finale of the Puls 4 Elephant Round. SPÖ leader Babler left his desk, approached pollster Haselmayer, who was waiting for his appearance in the TV studio, and surprisingly shook Haselmayer's shoulders. A brief discussion ensued, which continued after the TV debate.

Babler in the raw data at the top?
At the center of the dispute: The SPÖ leader doubts the seriousness of the polls. He does not see himself in third place, but at the top of the triell for the chancellorship. 

The crux of the matter: for several weeks now, hardly any serious polling institute has had the SPÖ in second place in its forecasts. The SPÖ has not been in first place in any representative poll.

Babler sees SPÖ at the top in raw data
Babler's accusation against pollster Haselmayer was that he was ahead of Chancellor Karl Nehammer (ÖVP) and FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl in the raw data, but was relegated to third place by the pollsters when evaluating the data.

Pollster Christoph Haselmayer at the Elephant Round Table(Bild: Imre Antal)

The top candidates with Klaus Herrmann, managing editor of the "Krone" and Manuela Raidl(Bild: PULS 4, ATV, Krone TV & JOYN)

What is raw data? This is the original data that is collected in a survey before it is analyzed by the pollsters.

There have often been black times for opinion research. However, Haselmayer did not want to accept the accusation that Babler was deliberately downgraded from first place in the raw data to third place.

Haselmayer had raw data sent to him during the broadcast
Haselmayer had the raw data from his polls sent to him during the broadcast to provide evidence to the contrary. Even in the raw data, the red top candidate does not come within reach of second place.

Pollster sees "internal motivation"
"Nerves are naturally on edge in the last week. The accusation that reputable institutes would already put you in first place in the raw data and 'downweight' you is wrong. I see it more as internal motivation for Babler himself and his team," says Haselmayer about the dispute.

The SPÖ headquarters said: "We can see from the raw data from various opinion research institutes that we are ahead of the ÖVP in the raw data. The three parties claiming to be chancellor are only separated by a few tens of thousands of votes ..."