2 years of war in Ukraine

Russia’s offensive and Austria’s strategy

Since the outbreak of war, there have already been 200,000 dead and wounded on the Ukrainian side.

(Bild: AFP )

Saturday marks the second anniversary of the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine. To mark the occasion, two Austrian Armed Forces experts, Colonel Markus Reisner and Major General Bruno Günter Hofbauer, took stock of the situation at the Ministry of Defense.

The second Russian winter offensive is currently underway. On February 24, exactly two years ago, no one thought that the Ukrainians would withstand the Russian offensive for more than three days. However, the war did not start two years ago, but actually ten years ago, as army expert Colonel Markus Reisner said at the Ministry of Defense.

Colonel Markus Reisner

(Bild: P. Huber)

The Ukrainian army is now more than weakened and, based on the current situation, Reisner sees black for Ukraine. This is mainly due to the inadequate supply of ammunition and the Russian superiority in this respect. "One Ukrainian shell is currently followed by ten Russian shells on the front line," says Reisner.

Our weakness is Russia's strength.

Oberst Markus Reisner

In the last two years, Russia has "adapted massively", ramped up its military-industrial complex and "is currently able to produce between 3.5 and five million artillery shells per year, according to estimates". Russia also produces drones on an industrial scale. The Ukrainians first have to build up a corresponding industry, which puts them at a clear military disadvantage.

The army expert also saw a shortage of air defense systems on the Ukrainian side, there was a lack of fighter aircraft and laboriously built-up reserves of equipment as a whole were practically used up in the failed summer offensive of 2023.

Russian army more than twice as large as at the start of the war
The army expert estimated the number of Ukrainian soldiers currently deployed at the front at 400,000, while the Russian side has just under 500,000 deployed, two and a half times as many as the 190,000 men with whom the Russian army invaded in February 2022. The military losses of the last two years would amount to around 200,000 dead and wounded on the Ukrainian side and 300,000 on the Russian side, he explained, referring to what he considers to be reliable information from the US military.

Our goal is to become a combat-capable army by 2032.

Generalmajor Bruno Günter Hofbauer

A third of these 500,000 soldiers are likely to have been killed, commented the colonel of the General Staff Service, who first commented on the military confrontation between Russia and Ukraine in the media on February 22, 2022, two days before the start of the Russian invasion. On the impact of the war on Europe, he said: "Our weakness is Russia's strength."

High risk of drones
The Deputy Chief of the General Staff, Major General Bruno Günter Hofbauer, described the current situation as a "preliminary phase before a much larger conflict", indicating the change in emphasis in the global interplay in relation to the Global South and the Global East. But Austria is also facing many challenges. "We should bear in mind that all the risks and threats that concerned us before Ukraine have not disappeared."

We should bear in mind that all the risks and threats that concerned us before Ukraine have not disappeared.

Generalmajor Bruno Günter Hofbauer

Based on the fact that Austria is still surrounded by EU and NATO states, he also mentioned the violation of air sovereignty and the deployment of special forces as conceivable threats. The Major General also rated the military use of drones against Austria in the next ten to 15 years as high. "One of the key points for the Austrian Armed Forces is to ramp up its air defense capability accordingly," he said.

Nine new helicopters have also been purchased.

(Bild: BMLV/Daniel TRIPPOLT)

(Bild: APA/ROLAND SCHLAGER)

A lot of money is currently being spent on this. 55 million euros are being spent on combat helmets alone. Attempts are being made to reform the armed forces while the engine is running. In any case, the aim is to "become a combat-capable army by 2032."