Fear of massacre

Iran wants freedom: Will the Supreme Leader flee to Putin?

This image was broadcast on Iranian television: a man documents burning vehicles.(Bild: AP/AP ( via APA) Austria Presse Agentur)

The people of Iran are no longer willing to put up with the reign of terror, the horrendous cost of living, and the dire economic situation, with hundreds of thousands taking to the streets in protest. Meanwhile, Iranian Nobel Peace Prize winner Shirin Ebadi warns of a "massacre under the cover of a comprehensive communications blackout." 

The facets of resistance are as diverse as the people themselves: on the 13th day of protests, police officers cheer together with demonstrators, women show themselves with their hair uncovered in the crowd, cigarettes are lit. In Iran, smoking is considered an act of disrespect towards authority, but in protests the signal is clear: people are no longer afraid. The images currently circulating around the world are astonishing.

Surveillance cameras are being unscrewed and destroyed—a swan song to the surveillance state. But the protest is also evident in smaller ways: loud music blares from cars, walls are smeared with anti-regime slogans, and security forces are ridiculed. 

"Boiling point reached"
"These protests feel different from previous ones because of the frustration and exhaustion of the people in Iran," analyzes Dina Esfandiary, Middle East expert at Bloomberg Economics. "It has reached boiling point," she says with conviction, assuming that the current Islamic Republic will not survive this year.

People are shouting "Death to the dictator" in the streets:

Concerns about a "silent" escalation of violence
At the same time, there are growing concerns that the internet blackout imposed by the regime could be used as a tactic to suppress the latest wave of protests. Nobel Peace Prize winner Ebadi, who lives in exile, wrote on Telegram on Friday that she had received information that hundreds of people with "severe eye injuries" had been admitted to a hospital in Tehran on Thursday.

According to activists, security forces had already deliberately targeted the eyes of demonstrators in 2023 during the crackdown on protests over the death of young Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini, causing blindness. Lawyer Ebadi was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2003 for her work in promoting human rights.

Already over 50 dead, mosques in flames
According to the latest information from the Norway-based organization Iran Human Rights (IHR), at least 51 demonstrators, including nine minors, have been killed in just under two weeks since the protests began. Students in the capital Tehran reported a tense security situation. According to the student newsletter "Amirkabir," special security forces with Kalashnikov assault rifles were stationed every ten meters on a main traffic artery. There was great concern that the violence would escalate.

Meanwhile, the mayor of Tehran, Alireza Zakani, reported on the extent of the unrest last night. According to his account, more than 50 banks and several government buildings were set on fire. "More than 30 mosques went up in flames," he said in a video distributed by the Mehr news agency. 

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei(Bild: AFP/-)

Lack of external support – flight to Moscow?
On the political stage, the mullahs' regime can no longer count on much solidarity. Russia is heavily involved in the war in Ukraine, both militarily and economically, and has few resources available to support Iran. However, rumors suggest that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has a plan to flee to Moscow. There, he could at least keep company with former Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, whose overthrow also meant the loss of an important friend for the mullahs. The terrorist groups Hamas and Hezbollah have also been severely weakened militarily by Israel.

Added to this is US President Donald Trump's hard line on authoritarian regimes: he threatened the country with an attack if security forces murdered demonstrators. Tehran should also not expect any economic concessions from Washington.

"Zombie regime with a dying ideology"
"This is probably the most existential moment the Iranian regime has experienced since the 1979 revolution," says Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He told CNN that Tehran's leadership is a "zombie regime": "It has a dying ideology. It has dying legitimacy, a dying economy, a dying leader, but it still retains this deadly capability."

According to the expert, pressure from below – in the form of demonstrators – is often not enough to topple an authoritarian regime. This must be supplemented by "divisions at the top," especially within the Revolutionary Guards, Iran's military. "So far, we have not seen any signs of fragmentation," Sadjadpour explained, but emphasized that revolutionary developments are difficult to predict.

However, Iran appears to be "on the verge of political transformation, simply because both the population and the regime recognize that the status quo can no longer be maintained."