USA seeks reason for war

Israel to serve as bait against the mullahs

Netanyahu recently visited Washington to discuss further action against Iran.(Bild: APA/Getty Images via AFP/GETTY IMAGES/Kevin Dietsch)

Heads are spinning in political Washington right now! Advisors to US President Donald Trump are working flat out to find ways to sell an attack on Iran to their own people. Tehran's arch-enemy Israel is now to be used as bait...

The White House is apparently still desperately searching for a reason to bomb the mullah regime in Iran. US President Trump has assembled the largest military force in the Middle East since the Iraq War – the troops are just waiting for his order.

Israel to strike first
The only problem is that the reason for this escalation has not yet been conclusively clarified. Senior advisors to Trump are now negotiating an Israeli first strike against Iran before the United States itself launches an attack. This is reported by Politico magazine, citing two people familiar with the negotiations.

Behind the scenes, it is argued that an Israeli attack would force Iran to retaliate, which in turn could mobilize American voters' support for a US military strike. 

The largest US aircraft carrier is currently en route to the Middle East:

This political calculation is easy to explain: more Americans would accept a war with Iran if the US or an ally could sell the strikes as defensive.

According to the magazine, recent polls show that Americans, especially Republicans, support regime change in Iran but are not willing to accept US casualties to achieve it. This means that Trump's team is considering the optics of an attack in addition to other justifications, such as Iran's nuclear program.

Trump's actions are causing enormous excitement in the Islamic world.(Bild: AP/Emrah Gurel)

Diplomatic solution seems out of reach
"There is a belief within and around the administration that the political situation will be much more favorable if the Israelis strike first and alone and the Iranians then strike back against us. That would give us more reason to act," one of the insiders explained.

As hopes for a diplomatic solution fade in Washington, the main question is increasingly when and how the US will attack. Regardless of the desire for an Israeli first strike, the two informants consider a joint operation by the US and Israel to be the most likely scenario.

Background

• Among other things, the negotiations concern Iran's controversial nuclear program.
• The US wants to prevent the leadership in Tehran from developing nuclear weapons.
• Trump is also demanding that the mullahs curb their missile program.
• The Iranian government denies any such intentions.
• However, the mullahs have enriched uranium far beyond the level necessary for energy production.
• In return, Tehran is demanding the lifting of tough US economic sanctions.

Iran says it has submitted a draft for a new nuclear agreement with the US. On Wednesday evening, shortly before the start of the third round of negotiations in Switzerland, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi presented the "elements of a possible agreement" to the mediator Oman, as reported by the state news agency IRNA on Thursday. On Thursday, delegations from Washington and Tehran will enter a decisive round of negotiations in Geneva.

Although this is a serious attempt to calm the situation, the prevailing opinion among the president's inner circle is: "We will bomb them." However, the question of the extent of the bombing remains open.

Large-scale attack carries enormous risks
A key issue is the risk of depleting US ammunition stocks. US military analysts fear that China could seize the opportunity to bomb Taiwan, which would likely cause the global economy to collapse.

A direct large-scale attack on the regime in Tehran would also claim US casualties. "In an attack aimed at regime change, Iran will likely retaliate with everything it has. We have many facilities in the region, and each of them is a potential target," according to the White House. "And these are not under the Iron Dome (Israeli air defense). So there is a high probability of American casualties, which carries with it great political risks."

Hovering over all this is the nebulous main justification for a potential US strike: Iran's nuclear program. Trump had repeatedly stated that the air strikes in the summer had "wiped out" Iran's nuclear facilities. Experts on the region seriously doubt that Tehran has ramped up production again in such a short time.

But with the increasing troop strength around Iran, the pressure to actually deploy the assembled army is also growing. In political Washington, minds are now apparently racking their brains to find a way out of this self-made impasse...