"Strategy disaster"

Why the gas price shock could be imminent

Prices have risen sharply and are still well above the 2021 level.(Bild: APA/AFP/Ina FASSBENDER)

Gazprom's delivery stop to OMV had been foreseeable and priced in for some time. Large quantities continue to flow from Russia to Austria. However, energy expert Johannes Benigni warns in an interview with "Krone" that the turn of the year could lead to price increases for several reasons. 

"In the short term, the gas supply freeze is primarily a problem for OMV," says Benigni. In the worst-case scenario, the company could emerge from the conflict with Russia's Gazprom without the gas volumes and without 230 million euros in dispute value, according to the head of the management consultancy JBC Vienna. "As far as prices for households are concerned, there are unlikely to be any major price increases this fall."

This is because the falling volumes have already been factored into the energy markets. Prices on the exchanges have already risen as expected this fall. Since the spring, the TTF wholesale price has risen from less than 30 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) in some cases to more than 45 euros per MWh (see chart). In comparison: before the war, the price was between 15 and 20 euros. Due to the great uncertainty, more speculators are currently entering the market.

Storage facilities are currently (still) well filled
However, as the suppliers have also secured themselves well, households do not have to expect any major price jumps in their energy bills for the time being. A supply emergency is also not yet an issue this winter, as the storage facilities are well filled at over 90 percent.

However, according to Benigni, this is no reason to sit back and relax. Things could get really serious at the turn of the year.