Fear high oil price

US appeal to Kiev: stop attacks on refineries

Fire in a Russian oil depot after a Ukrainian drone attack in January

(Bild: APA/AFP/RUSSIAN EMERGENCY MINISTRY/Handout)

According to a media report, the United States has called on Ukraine to stop drone attacks on Russian oil refineries. Otherwise, there are fears of retaliatory strikes and severely high oil prices - which could jeopardize Biden's re-election. However, Ukraine rejects the request.

Washington has repeatedly urged a halt to attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, including oil refineries and depots, reports the Financial Times, citing three people familiar with the matter. The warnings were sent to the domestic intelligence service SBU and the military intelligence service HUR. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, both services have massively expanded their drone programs and attacked enemy targets on land, at sea and in the air.

Increased strikes against the oil industry
For some time now, the Ukrainian armed forces have been increasingly targeting energy facilities on Russian territory. In the past two years, there have been twelve attacks on Russian oil refineries - nine of them in 2024 alone. Other terminals, depots and storage facilities have also been attacked.

The repeated Ukrainian strikes against Russia's oil industry have made the White House increasingly frustrated, according to an insider in the British daily. Despite massive Western sanctions, the Russian Federation is still one of the largest exporters of oil and gas.

Ukrainian drone pilots in the Kiev region

(Bild: APA/AFP/Genya Savilov)

600,000 barrels per day shut down
The increased number of attacks on Russian refineries therefore has far-reaching consequences for the oil market. According to estimates by Commerzbank economists on Friday, "an estimated 600,000 barrels per day had to be shut down as a result of drone attacks". Above all, this is fueling concerns about a lower supply of oil products.

The price of crude oil, which recently rose to over 85 dollars per barrel (159 liters), is also making fuel more expensive in the USA. The price of a gallon (3.78 liters) of gasoline has already risen by 15 percent this year to around 3.50 dollars.

Fear of high fuel prices
A reason to fear for US President Joe Biden, who is preparing to throw himself fully into the presidential election campaign. He is building his hopes of re-election on, among other things, having put the brakes on the massive rise in prices as a result of the war in Ukraine. "Nothing scares an incumbent president more than high prices at the pump in an election year," Bob McNally, a former energy adviser to the US government, told the Financial Times.

The US government also fears Russian retaliatory strikes against key infrastructure, such as the CPC pipeline that brings oil through Kazakhstan and Russia to the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, where it is shipped for the world market.

We are fighting with the capabilities, resources and practices we have.

Die ukrainische Vize-Ministerpräsidentin Olha Stefanischyna

Kiev rejected the US request on Friday, saying Russian oil refineries were legitimate targets. "We understand the demands of US partners, but at the same time we are fighting with the capabilities, resources and practices we have," Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna said in Kiev on Friday.

Attacks as an exclamation mark
Scaling back or stepping up the drone attacks is a delicate balancing act for Kiev. After all, the attacks are aimed first and foremost at the Russian war machine as well as the oil market. The aim is also to deal symbolic blows to Russia by taking the war far into the aggressor's hinterland. Last but not least, the attacks are also intended to show Washington that it makes sense to send more weapons to Ukraine - because they will be used efficiently, according to the message.

On the other hand, Ukraine has an enormous interest in Biden remaining president for another four years and should do everything in its power not to jeopardize his election victory. This is the only way to ensure that the USA continues to support the attacked country militarily and financially.