Three variants possible

Kurz trial: a verdict with many consequences

Trial against former Chancellor Sebastian Kurz: The verdict will be handed down on Friday.

(Bild: APA/EVA MANHART)

No matter which verdict is handed down on Friday for former Chancellor Sebastian Kurz (ÖVP) - it will cause debate. What consequences the three verdict variants could have.

From a purely legal point of view, there is not much at stake when the verdict is announced on Friday in the Kurz trial. The penalty for making a false statement to the investigating committee is up to three years. A first-time offender can almost definitely expect a conditional sentence.

Trial against former chancellor Sebastian Kurz: the verdict will be handed down on Friday.

(Bild: APA/EVA MANHART)

There is a lot at stake
As I said, from a purely legal point of view. Because there is much more at stake in the Sebastian Kurz case. The duration alone is a clear indication of how delicate the trial is. For twelve days, the question of whether Kurz intervened in the appointment of Thomas Schmid as sole director of the state holding company ÖBAG or whether he was only "involved in the sense of being informed" was investigated in the large jury courtroom.

Judge Michael Radasztics can pronounce three judgments - each judgment will have an impact on the political landscape.

Judge Michael Radasztics has the last word in the Kurz trial on Friday.

(Bild: APA/ROLAND SCHLAGER)

• Acquittal for Kurz - WKStA under pressure. If the judge comes to the conclusion that the ex-chancellor told the truth to the sub-committee, Kurz will leave the courtroom as an innocent citizen. The consequences of an acquittal are also clear: Kurz will celebrate the verdict as his first victory against the Economic and Corruption Prosecutor's Office (WKStA). The latter, in turn, would immediately appeal. The former ÖVP chancellor's attacks on the senior public prosecutors at the WKStA for acting in a biased manner in their investigations against him and other ÖVP politicians would be fueled. "After an acquittal, speculation as to whether Kurz would dare to make a political comeback would pick up speed again," says political expert Thomas Hofer. An acquittal would also be suboptimal for Thomas Schmid, who is about to receive the green light for leniency status. After all, Schmid has heavily incriminated the former ÖVP superstar in the trial. If he had been acquitted, the judge would not have believed Schmid's account. Not a good credentials for a leniency applicant.

Judgment procedure:

The trial starts at 8.30 am instead of 9.30 am.
The second witness from Russia testifies right at the beginning via Zoom.
At 10.30 am, Thomas Schmid will be questioned again, also via video link.
After the lunch break, the closing statements will be made: first the senior prosecutors of the WKStA, then the two defense lawyers.
The defendants, i.e. Sebastian Kurz and Bernhard Bonelli, have the last word. The verdict is then reached.

• Kurz is found guilty - Schmid is upgraded. If the judge comes to the conclusion that Kurz lied to the U Committee and finds him guilty, then the WKStA can breathe a sigh of relief. After all, many charges - such as Heinz-Christian Strache's - have recently ended in acquittal. Thomas Schmid would also go a long way towards becoming a key witness. Kurz would then be the first (not legally binding) convicted former chancellor in more than three decades. Kurz would not stop attacking the WKStA and the judiciary. What's more, he would attack the entire judiciary. His lawyer would appeal.

• Acquittal due to lack of testimony - the middle way. Judge Radasztics can come to the conclusion that Kurz lied to the U Committee, but was in a state of emergency, and therefore acquits him. A kind of "in doubt for the accused" verdict. Each side has then won a mini-victory: Kurz has his acquittal, and the WKStA can say Kurz lied. In this case, both parties will still appeal. In other words, the verdict will probably not become final until 2025 anyway.