After 16 years in office

Are Orbán’s days numbered? Here’s what the polls say

Orbán is currently fighting for his political survival.(Bild: EPA/AKOS KAISER/HUNGARIAN PM GENERAL DEPARTMENT OF COMMUNICATION)

Are Viktor Orbán’s days numbered? The latest polls ahead of election Sunday certainly suggest so. Yet the long-serving right-wing nationalist leader is likely to be hard to dislodge, even in the event of a defeat...

The polls from independent polling firms speak for themselves: Orbán appears to be trailing far behind! According to a survey conducted by the Publicus Institute in April, the conservative Tisza Party, led by formergovernment insider Péter Magyar, was supported by 52 percent of decided voters, while 39 percent favored Orbán’s Fidesz. There is, however, a major caveat: a full 25 percent of those surveyed did not want to commit.

Electoral system tailored to Orbán
Added to this is the fact that the electoral system (+) is tailored to the Hungarian autocrat. Due to the specific district boundaries, conservative rural votes count significantly more than liberal votes from the cities. Polls showing the pro-European Tisza leading nationwide could therefore be misleading. Moreover, after 16 years in office, Orbán’s power is deeply entrenched. The right-wing nationalist has installed loyalists in all key positions, from the judiciary to media oversight.

This could mean that even a narrow victory for Magyar would not be enough to finally get rid of Orbán. A political stalemate could loom: “The legislature could be blocked by the existing organizations,” Hungarian legal expert Peter Techet of the Institute for the Danube Region and Central Europe (IDM) told the “Kurier.”

The polls

• Publicus | Fidesz 29 percent | Tisza 38 percent
• Idea | Fidesz 30 percent | Tisza 39 percent 
• Iranytu | Fidesz 34 percent | Tisza 41 percent
• The figures refer to all respondents, including undecided voters

A two-thirds majority in Parliament is required for nearly all major legislative changes, the appointment of new judges, or the removal of Fidesz appointees in key positions who hold lifetime appointments.

In this situation, Orbán could portray himself as a democratic loser, while his people continue to pull the strings behind the scenes and paralyze the new government. Magyar would likely need a landslide victory to replace the old guard.

Loyalists play a decisive role
But even here, Orbán would still have an ace up his sleeve. Parliamentary Speaker László Kövér, an ultra-loyal Fidesz co-founder, could reconvene the old parliament for up to 30 days after the election. During this time, Orbán would be able to use his old two-thirds majority to create facts on the ground—such as further raising the thresholds for passing laws or expanding the powers of the president, who is also a Fidesz appointee. Observers speak of a “Polish scenario,” in which the old government tries to throw as many obstacles as possible in the new government’s path. So much for the theory.

In practice, the Hungarian population would likely not tolerate this. Even before the election, there were repeated mass protests against the Orbán regime. These would likely gain further momentum if the election results were blocked. “One must not underestimate the mood of society. If the majority of the population stands behind Magyar, not all blockades can be maintained through legal maneuvering alone,” political scientist Eszter Kovàts told the “Krone.”

External influence should not be underestimated. Orbán is a friend of both U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. Undecided voters are to be lured with economic promises. One day before the parliamentary election, Trump pledged economic aid to Hungary—though only if the long-serving right-wing prime minister wins again. He is ready to use “the full economic power” of the U.S. to help Hungary, the Republican declared on Friday on his online platform Truth Social.

Trump promises “future prosperity”
The U.S. would look forward to “investing in the future prosperity that will result from Orbán’s continued leadership.” Orbán is at odds with the EU over restrictions on democracy, the rule of law, and media freedom, as well as his stance on Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. Both Russia and the U.S. see him as a key player in weakening Brussels.

About 8.1 million Hungarians are eligible to vote. Polling stations close at 7 p.m. Since votes in rural areas are counted more quickly, initial results could favor Fidesz. In a close race, the final outcome could therefore be delayed until late into the night or even longer. One thing is certain: writing Orbán off prematurely would be a big mistake...