Think tank survey

Hardly anyone in Austria believes Ukraine will win

In Austria, only seven percent believe that Ukraine will defeat Russia.(Bild: AFP)

Hardly anyone in Austria believes that Ukraine will win its defensive war against Russia. This is the conclusion of a survey conducted by the ECFR think tank, according to which only seven percent of respondents expect Kiev's troops to achieve a military victory. In addition, 49% believe that Ukraine should conduct peace negotiations with Moscow.

The study by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) was published on Wednesday. It was conducted in twelve EU member states. In Austria, 1111 adults were surveyed in January. There were around 17,000 participants in total.

In Austria, only seven percent believe that Ukraine will defeat Russia.(Bild: AFP)

One third in favor of supporting Ukraine in its reconquest
Overall, 31% were of the opinion that Ukraine should be supported in order to recapture the lost territories. Among the Austrian participants, 23% agreed with this statement. The remainder stated that they did not support either statement, that they did not care or that they did not know.

Support for the reconquest of the territories was highest among respondents in Sweden (50 percent), with 31 percent in favor of negotiations. At the other end of the scale was Hungary, where 16% wanted to see Ukraine supported, while 64% wanted peace negotiations.

Only a small group believes in a military victory for Ukraine
At 31%, Hungarians were also the most convinced that Russia would win the war, while only a small group believed in a military victory for Ukraine. In Austria, one in five (20 percent) see a Russian victory as the most likely outcome of the war. Seven percent see Ukraine as the winner, while 36 percent assume a negotiated solution. In Poland, Sweden and Portugal, 17% of respondents each expect a Ukrainian victory - 14%, 19% and 11% respectively expect a Russian victory.

Austrians see refugees "more as an opportunity"
The war also led to many Ukrainians fleeing to EU countries. The authors of the study asked whether these refugees were seen "more as a threat" or "more as an opportunity". In Austria, the answer was slightly in favor of Ukrainian refugees at 33% to 26%. In contrast, Poles (40%) and Hungarians (37%) had a negative view of the Ukrainian refugees.

At the other end of the spectrum were the Swedes, where only ten percent saw a threat and 52 percent an opportunity for their country.

The US election also plays an important role
The US election will also play a role in determining how support for Ukraine develops. Should the re-election of Donald Trump as US President lead to a significant reduction in support from the United States, only 14% of Austrians surveyed want the EU to try and make up for the shortfall as best it can.

42% even think that the EU should follow the potential US example. A further 17% would be in favor of maintaining the current level of support.