Climate change unchecked

Atlantic is heading for a dangerous tipping point

From study to study, more and more findings on climate change are coming to light - but the time to act is slowly running out.

(Bild: APA/Getty Images via AFP/GETTY IMAGES/JOE RAEDLE)

The Gulf Stream in the Atlantic is actually considered a guarantee for mild weather conditions in Europe, but now the ocean current is threatening to collapse. In a recent study, researchers speak of "frightening" measurement results. This could have fatal consequences for Europe.

Leading climate scientists have long feared that climate change, which continues unabated, will have a massive impact on weather conditions in Europe. However, while periods of heat in particular will become a challenge in the medium term, the opposite development threatens in the long term.

Specifically, the circulation of the Atlantic Ocean is heading towards a tipping point, which is "bad news for the climate system and humanity", according to the Dutch researchers in the study published in the renowned journal Science Advances.

Devastating consequences loom
Using computer models and data from the past, the researchers developed an early warning indicator for the collapse of a large part of the Gulf Stream, a huge system of ocean currents that is a key component in regulating the global climate. The shocking news: the currents are already on their way to such an abrupt shift, the likes of which have not been seen for more than 10,000 years - with devastating consequences.

The exact timing is still unclear. "But we can at least say that we are approaching the tipping point of climate change," lead author René van Westen, a marine researcher at Utrecht University, is quoted as saying in the British Guardian.

Marine conveyor belt could come to a standstill
The Gulf Stream is a marine conveyor belt: it transports warm, very salty water from the tropics towards the Arctic Circle, where the water cools and sinks due to its greater density. At depth, it flows in a southerly direction. The ocean currents transport heat and nutrients to different parts of the world and play a key role in keeping the climate relatively mild in large parts of the northern hemisphere.

As the poles melt, the water becomes diluted with cold freshwater and thus weakens. The result: after the enormous heatwaves of the future, there is a threat of a cold snap. In some parts of Europe, temperatures threaten to drop by up to 30 degrees Celsius within a century. Within just one or two decades, the climate would be completely different: "There are no realistic adaptation measures that can cope with such rapid temperature changes," the researchers continue to sound the alarm.

World becoming increasingly inhospitable for living creatures
The situation is completely different in the southern hemisphere. In many regions there, warming could even intensify further, and in the Amazon region the rainy and dry seasons could be reversed, severely disrupting the ecosystem. This would then immediately lead to the next tipping point, where the already weakened rainforest would be threatened for good.

Added to this are the already known effects, such as the enormous rise in sea levels, extreme weather events and enormous temperature fluctuations across the globe.

The question now is how long it could actually take for the explosive tipping point to occur. It was only last year that the British Mett Office caused a stir with a controversial study - but with similar results. According to the study, it could be as early as 2025 to 2095. However, there were strong doubts about the calculations.

"It'skind of scary"
"We're moving towards it. It's kind of scary," said van Westen, referring to the data, which is not just theoretical in nature, but is based on ice-cold measurement results. "We need to take climate change much more seriously," he warns. How would that be possible? By drastically reducing CO2 emissions - but mankind is still a long way from achieving this.