Chaos due to Starlink

Russians are “blind”: Ukrainians suddenly advance

The Ukrainians are likely to have exploited a temporary technological advantage.(Bild: AP/Andriy Andriyenko)

The shutdown of the Starlink satellite network has apparently caused chaos in the Russian ranks. As a result, Vladimir Putin's units often acted "blind" — and in recent days have been overrun in places by exhausted Ukrainian troops. 

The Ukrainian armed forces have achieved a significant success in just four days. According to data analysis by the independent Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in the US, Kyiv liberated an area of 201 square kilometers between Wednesday and Sunday.

To put this into context, this is the largest territorial gain for Ukraine in such a short period of time since its counteroffensive in June 2023, and is almost equivalent to Russia's conquests for the entire month of December (244 square kilometers). The institute's analysis indicates a significant change in the situation on the front lines.

Blind spots due to loss of technology
The main reason for this success is considered to be the Russian army's loss of access to the Starlink satellite system. According to consistent media reports, Putin's men have been unable to use the network operated by multi-billionaire Elon Musk for their operations since the beginning of February.

How does Starlink work?

• The backbone of the system is a network of thousands of satellites in low Earth orbit.
• Users need a receiving and transmitting unit with an integrated router function and a flat satellite antenna (see image below).
• This gives them access to high-speed internet around the globe, independent of conventional telecommunications infrastructure.
• The speed is around one gigabit per second – comparable to the rapid 5G technology.

 

Officially, the use of Starlink is illegal in Russia. The system is not licensed in Moscow, nor does Musk sell his technologies to Russia. Nevertheless, the first Starlink terminals began to appear among Russian troops in 2023. These were mostly purchased on the black market via countries in the Persian Gulf or Central Asia for use on the front lines.

The current outage is significant. Starlink is an important tool for both sides in the war for communicating and controlling units and weapon systems. Using regular mobile internet on the front lines is both ineffective and dangerous because, on the one hand, there is often no connection at all and, on the other hand, such connections can be quickly located.

Starlink ensures fast internet even in remote regions.(Bild: APA/AFP/Yasuyoshi CHIBA)

Respite for Ukraine
The shutdown particularly affects the use of Russian drones. Recently, the Russians even equipped drones directly with terminals to improve their accuracy and make them even more resistant to electronic jamming systems. This enabled Moscow to attack targets with high precision and cause considerable damage.

In recent weeks in particular, the Russian military has successfully carried out a series of attacks against Ukrainian supply lines thanks to Starlink technology. Numerous mobile units that were important for supplying the defenders were hit. The road from Dnipro to Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region thus became a death trap. Without access to the satellite network, this capability is now severely limited, which has significantly reduced the effectiveness of Russian drone attacks and given Ukraine a respite.

Two methods are helping to cut off the Russian military from further use of Starlink in Ukraine. First, there is a speed limit: if a terminal moves faster than 90 kilometers per hour for two minutes, the system restarts. This is intended to prevent the use of drones.

The second measure is considered even more important: all terminals in Ukraine must be officially registered on an electronic platform in order to function. This has apparently also led to some problems on the Ukrainian side, as the majority of terminals were not officially purchased by the armed forces, but by volunteers.

The Ukrainians are likely to have exploited a temporary technological advantage.(Bild: AP/Andriy Andriyenko)

Units that have such devices must now officially register them in order for them to function again. Security measures have also been taken to prevent pro-Russian Ukrainians from registering such devices in their name for the Russian armed forces.

Impact on combat operations
The immediate consequences of this technological setback can be seen directly on the battlefield. ISW data shows that Russia's troops were only able to gain ground on one day last week, February 9. On the other days, Ukrainian forces managed to seize the initiative and make up ground. The latest recaptures are mainly concentrated in an area about 80 kilometers east of the city of Zaporizhzhya.

Just a few days after the shutdown, Russian state television's military correspondent, Alexander Sladkov, complained that communication within the units had been thrown back to 2022 levels.

Russians are "blind" again
At that time – shortly after the invasion of Ukraine – chaos reigned in many places and troops were often led "blind," that is, without knowledge of the circumstances on the ground. Russian military bloggers say the Kremlin is working urgently on "less convenient" backup systems. 

Although there are alternatives to Starlink, analysts rate them as far inferior. Fiber optic cables or digital radio modems can be used for short-range connections, but they are all slower to set up and more difficult to handle in mobile use.

Russia's own satellite communications, such as those provided by Gazprom Space Systems, operate only a small number of geostationary satellites, resulting in patchy coverage and lower data capacity.

According to reports, Russian soldiers, in their desperation, are even falling for fake login portals set up by Ukrainian cyber units – thus revealing their position. Attempts by Kremlin troops to activate their black market satellite terminals are thus followed by heavy shelling. Ukraine's 256th Cyber Attack Division was responsible for this. The digital deception was cynically dubbed "Operation Self-Liquidation." According to the division, 2,420 data records were collected and nearly $6,000 in "service fees" were collected.

Nevertheless, Western military experts point to one fact in particular: even if there is no modern alternative to Starlink, that does not mean that Russia cannot continue to wage war. In addition, Ukraine would lack soldiers and ammunition. The current advance is merely a "tactical stabilization." How effective the shutdown actually is will only become clear in the coming weeks.