Russia and the war

Harvard professor: “How naive we were!”

Historians Peter Ruggenthaler, Barbara Stelzl-Marx, Serhii Plokhy and Christiane Berth

(Bild: BIK_Graf_Boyko)

The brutal Russian war of aggression was "bad for everyone, including Russian interests, but I don't see anyone going into Putin's office and taking over", said the renowned historian of Ukrainian origin and Harvard professor Serhii Plokhy at the Contemporary History Day in Graz on Thursday. Plokhy gave the keynote speech at the conference, organized by the Ludwig Boltzmann Institute for Research on the Consequences of War and the University of Graz. He did not expect the conflict to end any time soon, nor did he expect any rapid changes in the world's largest country in terms of area. After all, social change does not happen overnight, according to the historian.

"We see a new period for Europe and world history, which also depends on the outcome of Russia's war against Ukraine - the biggest war in Europe since 1945," explained the historian, who holds the Chair of Ukrainian History at the elite US university Harvard. Now "our history, that of our children and that of the next 20 years" will be decided. It is indeed a turning point.

One turning point he identifies was at the end of March, beginning of April 2022, when Ukraine demonstrated its ability to withstand the Russian invasion and fight back. "Nobody would have given Ukraine more than a few days, even the West saw it that way. Then a coalition was forged for Ukraine. Then Ukraine ran out of miracles at the end of the counter-offensive," concluded Plohky. "Now we have a more sober assessment of the situation, which is the second turning point. We don't know what is happening in Russia, but I don't believe that all the dead and wounded coming back to Russia are producing the message (of Russian ruler Vladimir Putin, ed.) that Ukrainians and Russians are brothers." He believes that Russians are not immune to the influences of history, even if it currently seems that way.

Barbara Stelzl-Marx, head of the Ludwig Boltzmann Institute for Research on the Consequences of War, and Harvard professor Serhii Plokhy

(Bild: BIK_Malikova)

"The resistance created the Ukrainian nation, not Putin"
With regard to the formation of a Ukrainian sentiment - something Putin has criminally underestimated - Plohky said that the consciousness of the masses produces the changes. "The resistance created the Ukrainian nation, not Putin," said Plokhy, referring to the driving forces behind nation building. However, the expectation that changes - such as a regime change in Russia - could come quickly is problematic. "My generation experienced the perestroika years. We actually believed in the end of history and paid no attention to the lessons of history. How naive we were!" He does not expect any rapid changes in Russia, as society cannot be transformed overnight. And if it does, it will happen in the long term.

Putin's war is also a war of the Russians
In any case, the attack on Ukraine is as much Putin's war as it is the Russians' war, because they have their support. "It's bad for everyone, including Russian interests, but I don't see anyone going into Putin's office and taking over," says the Harvard professor, who has also written several books on the subject ("The Frontline", "The Attack", "The Gateway to Europe"). There is never just one turning point. He recalled Russia's two wars in Chechnya. These were formative experiences. Not only Putin had grown out of them, but also the attitude of the Russians. And it is worth remembering that Putin's predecessor Boris Yeltsin ruled by decree, bypassing parliament.

(Bild: BIK_Malikova)

(Bild: BIK_Graf_Boyko)

Difficult access to sources
According to Plokhy, it is difficult for historians how much the war has changed and complicated access to sources and archives. Of course, records were destroyed, and some were also destroyed by the Ukrainians during the retreat. In any case, his students used to be able to work both in Russia and in Ukraine; after all, Ukraine had the largest publicly accessible ex-KGB archive. Now the students work in Moldova, Poland and the Baltic states. "But despite the war, this is a lucky coincidence: The students are getting very different and new approaches and special perspectives. Social media also opens up completely new possibilities. It's really about turning a disadvantage into the greatest possible advantage." This was confirmed by Barbara Stelzl-Marx, Head of the Institute for European Contemporary History at the Karl-Franzens-University Graz and Head of the Ludwig Boltzmann Institute for Research on the Consequences of War: Unfortunately, there is currently little access to Russia and Ukraine, so cooperation with Georgia, for example, is being expanded, says the university professor.

TheWest must learn again that values are not free
When asked how a possible US President Donald Trump would deal with Ukraine, Plokhy replied: "That reminds me of a statement by Winston Churchill: you can rely on the USA to do the right thing, but only after they have tried everything else. Incidentally, you can extend that to the whole West these days." There is no doubt that the Western economic model is powerful and productive. But the population in the West would probably first have to learn again that things like values, security and prosperity are not free, not in the kind of Cold War situation we find ourselves in now