Overview since 2019

Poll emperors almost all ended up on the sidelines

Since the National Council elections in 2019, Herbert Kickl, Sebastian Kurz, Alexander Schallenberg and Pamela Rendi-Wagner have been leading in the polls: Karl Nehammer could win on election Sunday without ever having been in first place in the polls himself.

As quiet as the election campaign has been, the election evening promises to be exciting. Pollsters expect a close neck-and-neck race between FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl, who is still leading in the polls, and Chancellor Karl Nehammer. The fact that it could even be so close on election day that there may not yet be a winner is thanks to the ÖVP's brilliant race to catch up - and this was not exactly on the cards.

Pandemic caused black-green highs
As a look at the polls since the national elections in 2019 shows, there have been several ups and downs in the past five years.

In the first year of the coronavirus pandemic, the ÖVP even reached 46% under the now young former chancellor Sebastian Kurz and the Greens up to 18%. "The FPÖ initially suffered greatly from the coronavirus pandemic, falling to around 12%, but was then able to benefit from the lockdowns and growing discontent among the population," explains Christoph Haselmayer, head of the Institute for Public Opinion Research and Data Analysis (IFDD).

ÖVP and SPÖ lose pole position
Allegations of corruption, chat scandals and the resulting withdrawal of the Turkish wunderwuzzi Sebastian Kurz would have slowed down the ÖVP and led to the SPÖ under Pamela Rendi-Wagner even reaching over 30 percent in a possible election in the summer of 2022. It would have, because there were no new elections, as we know, and the unity in the red ranks began to crumble despite the good polls.

Late but nevertheless, Federal Chancellor Karl Nehammer developed a chancellor bonus and was able to significantly reduce the gap to the FPÖ in the election campaign finale.

Christoph Haselmayer (IFDD)

Internal squabbles and ricochets from several federal states famously sparked a leadership debate in the SPÖ - and first place was gone again just a few months later. "In the fall of 2022, the approval of the coronavirus measures was finally overturned, which increasingly benefited Herbert Kickl and his FPÖ politically. Since December 2022, he has been leading in all polls without exception," adds Haselmayer.