Difficult with the military

Europe could almost replace US aid to Ukraine

Europe could support Ukraine as well as the USA in many areas if the latter were to stop its aid altogether. However, the military issue would be a challenge - as a new study shows. On Tuesday, the United States reopened the previously stopped aid to Ukraine.

According to the study by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), the European states could take over the financial aid from the USA with comparatively little additional effort if the United States were to stop it completely.

"Our data shows that Europe would be able to compensate for a large part of the US aid - but only if the political decision-makers act decisively," says IfW Research Director Christoph Trebesch. Because: "So far, Europe has moved too slowly here."

European governments would have to pay almost twice as much
According to the study, European governments currently spend an average of just 0.1 percent of their gross domestic product (GDP) per year on bilateral aid to Ukraine. To compensate for a halt in aid from the USA, the contribution for all states and the EU institutions would have to rise to 0.21%. This would almost double the current 44 to 82 billion euros per year. 

US military aid not so easy to replace
According to the study, it could be more difficult to replace US arms and ammunition aid than financial aid. For example, Ukraine is dependent on the USA for long-range air defense systems and missile artillery. In other areas, most of the weapons systems supplied already come from European production. 

"Europe no longer just supplies from existing stocks, but now orders most of the weapons for Ukraine directly from industry," says Trebesch. "This process must be significantly accelerated through firm procurement commitments." 

In the event of a US aid freeze, Europe could start buying weapons systems on the international market - for example in South Korea and Israel. In addition, European governments could order weapons directly from Ukraine - for example drones.