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Von der Leyen has a good chance of a second term in office

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen(Bild: AFP/Odd Andersen)

Ursula von der Leyen has a good chance of becoming EU Commission President again. Although right-wing populist parties have made strong gains, her European People's Party (EPP) has performed better than expected. Who gets which EU top job will be debated in Brussels on June 17.

The preliminary decision could already fall on Ursula von der Leyen at the end of June, as French President Emmanuel Macron has been weakened and there is no real alternative, said political scientist Sophia Russack from the Brussels-based Centre of European Policy Studies (CEPS). In any case, the election result puts the EPP "in a very good position."

More than a quarter of seats go to EPP
The EU Commission President has already announced talks with the Liberals and Social Democrats (see video above). According to preliminary election results, her EPP will have 185 seats (out of 720 seats), with the Social Democrats remaining the second strongest camp. They are followed by the Liberals and the right-wing populist party alliances EKR and ID.

Ursula von der Leyen(Bild: AFP/Odd Andersen)

In order for von der Leyen to run for another term of office, she must be proposed by a majority of the European Council. This means that 13 heads of state and government from the same family and at least three others from large member states must vote in favor of von der Leyen. 

Guntram Wolff, leading economist at the think tank Bruegel, said that the EPP had now moved closer to right-wing populist positions, but he did not know whether this had "really reached the citizens." "The wind has changed in two policy areas: migration and climate change." The right would "seem to find simple solutions to complex problems", said Russack. 

The wind has changed in two policy areas: migration and climate change.

Politologin Sophia Russack

Fear of too strict climate protection?
According to Wolff and Russack, the fear of many Europeans of a too migration-friendly course and too strict climate protection measures helped decide the election. "People know that climate change is a problem, but there are so many other problems than in 2019," analyzed the German political scientist. Now "it's about war and peace, people have less money, which puts them under even more pressure."