Stockpile is shrinking

Russians likely to run out of air militarily from 2025

Russia has sent some very old military equipment into battle - but the old stocks are dwindling.(Bild: APA/AFP/Genya SAVILOV)

As the Russian war of aggression continues, Ukraine will remain heavily dependent on ammunition and weapons supplies from abroad. According to an analysis by the British RUSI Institute, however, holding out in defense could pay off in the foreseeable future - the Kremlin's chances of success are likely to gradually diminish from 2025.

The Russian armed forces are expected to reach their peak at the end of 2024, with the material challenges increasing in the course of 2025, researchers Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds summarize in a recent blog post.

Russia has sent some very old military equipment into battle - but the old stocks are dwindling.(Bild: APA/AFP/Genya SAVILOV)

Wear-and-tear battles as a tactical calculation
Russia is currently pursuing a plan to continue the pressure on the front in order to exhaust the ammunition and personnel reserves in Ukraine. To this end, it is attempting to break the resolve of its international partners to continue sending military aid to Ukraine - if the capacities of the attacked countries then dry up, the Russians can once again be expected to make gains on the battlefield.

The war on Ukraine has already claimed countless victims - are dwindling reserves now an indication of a possible end to the conflict?(Bild: APA/AFP/Genya SAVILOV)

At present, however, Russia's armed forces are still suffering heavy losses. "Although no major offensive is currently taking place, Russian units are tasked with carrying out smaller tactical attacks that are at least inflicting steady losses on Ukraine and enabling Russian forces to take and hold positions."

Stockpiles keep the attack going
However, these setbacks can still be easily compensated for, as around 80 percent of the tanks and armoured vehicles in use are refurbished and modernized. However, stocks are slowly coming to an end - according to the analysis, the majority of stocks are likely to be used up by 2026. The Russian industry cannot keep up with the production of supplies.

North Korea not tipping the scales either
The situation is similar with the production of ammunition: The Russian Ministry of Defense has calculated a requirement of around 5.6 million 152 millimetre and 122 millimetre caliber shells for 2024. However, Russia can apparently only produce 2.1 million shells of the required caliber itself. This leaves only stockpiles, which are likely to be in poor condition.

Although the aggressor could be helped by the supply of shells from North Korea, it will still not be able to "make up for the considerable shortage of available 152-millimetre ammunition in 2025".

Russia is playing for time
What does this mean for Ukraine? Russia is still playing for time, but if it has no prospect of success in 2025 "because it is unable to improve the quality of its armed forces for offensive operations, then it will consequently have difficulties forcing Kiev to surrender by 2026," the authors write in their conclusion.

The motto is therefore: hold out, made possible by further deliveries of weapons and ammunition from allies. This would probably force Russia not only to seek negotiations, but to actually negotiate an end to the war on terms favorable to Ukraine.